The Straddle, I mean strangle trade...

Trade Update 7/27/06

As I have recently been saying, I have been waiting for the market to tell me which way it is going to go. For the last couple of months, the DOW has been trading between 11700 and 10650. I am waiting the market to either break through or bounce down from resistance on high volume. Interestingly enough, the market looks to test resistance on or about the next FED announcement date.

7/27/06 $INDU 60d60m Chart



Below is a screen sot of my current trade as of market close on 7/26/06



I only have one trade now. You guessed it, that (so called) straddle trade that I entered some time ago… I have actually been wrong all this time. It is not a straddle trade but a strangle trade. Investopedia provides a fine description of the strange trade. Anyway, as I have come to learn from this trade experience that this type of trade is only profitable when a large price movement is occurs. I have been in this QCOM trade since around 7/12/06 and there has not been one of those large price movement thing-a-me-jigs… This why I am yet to make and profit! I still have a few weeks until expiration, so I will see how it goes.

I lost RIG yesterday to my stop for a 50% profit.

Good Luck - David

Trade Update 7/26/06 BMO

Almost all stocks on my watch list appear oversold or neutral. I am waiting on the market to give me conformation of what direction it is going at the moment. Long Term – still bullish, mid term - cautiously bullish, short term… not to sure!

Below is a screen sot of my current trades as of market close on 7/25/06.



Below is a screen sot of my current trades as of market close on 7/25/06.

.EOGTN – Lost to stop on 7/21/06 for a profit of 51.07 after commissions. I could be still in the trade if the stop was above my resistance line.
.AAOHH & AAOTU – Straddle Play, still watching the numbers! The call is all but worthless now and the put has doubled its value. I am in the red by about $10
.RIGTQ – Hold @ 75.79 – I am still in the trade. My indicators are showing that the stock is moving from oversold to neutral ground.

Good Luck - David

A Pause in my Posts - Time is on my side

Sorry about the lack of posts since last Friday. Many things to do, so little time. I have managed to look at my positions each day and look at some potential new trades, but have not had the chance to post on the blog.

Update: I have lost all but three positions now and the market is in this frustrating state. All my indicators are pointing to an oversold state, but I don't have a bull feeling about the market. I am getting mixed messages and are not too sure what to do. As some one posted on a blog I read today, 'I want to go short, but all I see are longs. It is neither the right time to go short or long at the moment.' For me, a bullish sign is the Dow breaking 11248. A bearish sign will be the Dow falling below 10600ish.

I really really really want to get in some trades. I need to maintain my discipline and wait for confirmation. Time is on my side.

Cheers - David

Its Friday, I had to drag myself out of Bed Today

I slept in because I knew my trade review would be quick easy for me today. I am holding all my positions today with not stop changes. I have started looking at my watchlist for some trades to enter next week. I hope to post something about them on the week end.
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Below is a screen sot of my current trades as of market close on 7/20/06.


As usual, below are the adjustments that I made to my current trades before market open. I have adjusted them to lock in profits and/or minimize possible losses.

.DVNTL – Hold at 61.80.
.EOGTN – I stopped out of EOG yesterday for a 7% profit. Some of my stops are too tight. I still should be in this trade. EOG & DVN are trading very similarly.
.AAOHH & AAOTU – Straddle Play, still watching the numbers!
.RIGTQ – Hold @ 75.79 – My 2nd profit target for RIG is 70.04.

For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you develop your own trading systems, strategies and rules, conduct your analysis, come to your own conclusions and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near qualified to make such recommendations.

Good Luck - David

Easy One Today!

Just a few trades now. I am looking forward to doing my backwards analysis of my trades. This should give me some good lessons learned and help refine my future trading strategies.

Below is a screen sot of my current trades as of market close on 7/19/06.


As usual, below are the adjustments that I made to my current trades before market open. I have adjusted them to lock in profits and/or minimize possible losses. The anticipated bounce on the major indices did not occur today, but the expectation is still there. I expect to be stopped out of many of these trades in the coming days.

.DVNTL – Hold at 61.80
.EOGTN – Hold at 68.56
.AAOHH & AAOTU – Straddle Play, still watching the numbers! Very interesting, it appears that the option value in both directions is decreasing. Looking at the chart, the stock has been in this 2pt+/- trading range for the last week or so.
.RIGTQ – Changed to 75.79. I have made my profit. From looking at the chart, the stock appears to have entered a – My profit target for RIG was 76.68. I passed my first profit target!

For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you develop your own trading systems, strategies and rules, conduct your analysis, come to your own conclusions and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near qualified to make such recommendations.

Good Luck - David

B B B BB BB BBB BBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBOUNCE!

There was that bounce that we were expecting. For a great commentary on the events of the day I will give you the usual recommendation to read Trader Tim’s Blog posting today. Make sure you read the comments. Some of these guys have some amazing insight into the market.

As expected, I was stopped out of the majority of my current trades today for a modest profit. They could have been better. I think I need to put some more thought to the application of my stop strategy when the market is moving like this. My intuition told me to get out the other day when the DOW bounced off 10701. Today's bounce was imminent.

The put trades I stopped out of today include:

.BNITO – Stopped out today for a 29% gain in 12 calendar days. Sold @ 73.57, I did not reach my profit target of 72.25.
.DOTQ – Stopped out today for a 93% gain in 12 calendar days. Sold @ 73.30, my profit target was 79.50. Great Trade!
.LSSTL – Stopped out today for a 22% gain in 12 calendar days. Sold @ 51.80, I did not reach my profit target of 50.07.
.MLMTR – Stopped out today for a 111% gain in 12 calendar days. Sold @ 79.43, my profit target was 77.15.
.NYXUK – Stopped out today for a 16% gain in 12 calendar days..
.XBTTF – Stopped out for a .05% gain. No loss on commissions! Sold at 56.73, my profit target was 50.56. I am disappointed with this trade. It did not budge on market down days. I could have sold it for a 22% gain when the market went to 10701, but I stayed in waiting for the stop to be triggered.
.TRNTH – Stopped out today for a 63% gain in 12 calendar days. Sold @ 31.05, my profit target for TRN was 30.39.

Based on these trades and the trades exited in the last few days, I have had a gain of about 42% in 12 days. It could have been more, it could have been less. I was lucky. Note that if I had of exited these trades the day the DOW bounced off 10701, my gain would have been around 67% in about 9-10 days. Its something to ponder, however at the end of the day, I am very happy with the outcome. It exceeded my expectations!

I think I have 3 open trades now. I need to start looking for some more to enter. I feel that I need to stay in a holding pattern for the next few days and let the market work itself out and give nme some direction. The time to get back in with some new trades will be soon enough.

For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you develop your own trading systems, strategies and rules, conduct your analysis, come to your own conclusions and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near qualified to make such recommendations.

Good Luck and Good Night - David

YHOOOOOO Down the Tube!

Its abit late... I had to get to work before I could upload the blog post I had written this morning. Anyhow here is what I had written BMO thismorning!
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Guess I was wrong about Yahoo! If I had of stayed in, I would be up 250% on the trade. Oh well, not to worry. I had my strategy mapped out and I stuck to it. I would be patting myself on the back if the earnings had been the other way.

One thing I have learned is that Discipline is the Key to being a good trader. It will protect you from your self!
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Below is a screen sot of my current trades as of market close on 7/18/06.

As usual, below are the adjustments that I made to my current trades before market open. I have adjusted them to lock in profits and/or minimize possible losses. The anticipated bounce on the major indices did not occur today, but the expectation is still there. I expect to be stopped out of many of these trades in the coming days.

.BNITO – Changed to 73.36 – Probable time to get out of this one.
.DVNTL – Hold at 61.80 -
.DOTQ – Changed to 73.24 – Closed just above 72 @ 72.20
.EOGTN – Changed to 68.56
.QMHTK – Stopped out today for a 12% gain in 11 calendar days. I did not reach my profit target of 46.27.
.LSSTL – Changed to 51.78 – My 1st profit target is 50.07.
.MLMTR – Changed to 76.65 – The stock passed it profit target, it is looking to bounce. Its time to get out with a good profit
.NYXUK – Hold @ 62.55 – Still not stopped out!
.AAOHH & AAOTU – Straddle Play, still watching the numbers!
.XBTTF – Changed to 56.70 – It appears to be making a move now.
.RIGTQ – Changed to 76.14 – My profit target for RIG was 76.68. I passed my first profit target!
.TRNTH – Hold @ 34.77 – My profit target for TRN is 30.39.
.UNPTR –Stopped out yesterday for a 43% gain. I did not reach my profit target of 84.77.
.YHQVG – Exited trade yesterday before close for a 12% gain. Guess I was wrong about its earnings call. If I had of stayed in, I would be 200% up today! Its OK, I planned my trade, and executed it as planned. If it had of jumped, I would have been thankfull.

For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you develop your own trading systems, strategies and rules, conduct your analysis, come to your own conclusions and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near qualified to make such recommendations.

Good Luck - David