Quick Post - I don’t know how I came to believe that FMOC interest rate announcement was today, but it is not. Come to think about it, I sometimes don’t know what planet I’m on. My mistake may have caused me to miss my entry window on some of my trades… I will know tonight.
Lesson Learned – Get Your Facts Right!
Cheers - David
Thursday, November 16, 2006
Watch List
There are a number of stocks that I have on my watch list that are giving me buy signals (both bullish and bearish) that I have been waiting for. The include ARE, BSC, CMI, GS, MTW, PFE. However, today is not a day for me to enter any trades since it is the FED anouncement day. I have been burned on the last two and promised myself to wait until afterwards. The problem for me is not the anoucement it's self, but my in ability to react prior to the market close. AGN, FTI, FCX, MRO are also on my 'Pending' Watchlist.
I am still in my COF trade - I am watching it closely.
Cheers - David
I am still in my COF trade - I am watching it closely.
Cheers - David
Friday, November 10, 2006
New trade - COF
I entered into a COF Jan 07 80 Put position for $5.60 on 11/2/06. The stock had been on my set-up watch list since mid October 2006 when it retested the 200dma. The stock originally came to my attention when reading Tim Knights blog. I liked what I saw and added it t my list.
I was patiently waiting for the stock to give me a cross over signal on the STO (occurred on 10/27) and MACD (occurred on 10/30), and a breakdown below the 21dma on high volume (occurred on 10/31). For some reason, I did not look at the COF chart on 10/31 (missing the final buy signal) and 11/1 ( a 2nd high volume down day). I entered the following day. On the day of entry, it took me an hour to pull the trigger which facilitated me buying my put at the bottom for the day (a bit late, don’t you think!!!)… A contingent stop order was set at 79.00 based on resistance and allowable loss for a trade.
Look at how the trade is currently progressing, my indicators are showing that a short term reversal maybe on the way, however, I am going to see if the 50dma holds as resistance.
Lessons Learned on this trade so far:
1. Get over yourself and just pull the trigger. Trust your analysis and follow through
2. Check your watch lists daily. Looking at this trade, the stock had already moved 5-8% before entry.
Cheers - David
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
Back online!
2 months have passed since my last post. My world has been upside down getting use to having a new little one in the house, but things are getting better. I must say that having a child is one of the greatest experiences one can have. I see that one of my life’s future achievements will be to watch my kids (one so far) grow up and some day have a life and kids of their own.
As for trading, it has taken some time to get back into the mix. I paper traded for the month of October with some mixed results. I found that my winning trades outnumbered my loosing trades but my results were inconsistent. After reviewing these trades, I found that my results were inconsistent for the following reasons:
1. Entering the trade in anticipation of a price move (that obviously did not occur) – This caused me the biggest dollar loss in 2 trades – What a big waste of money!!!
2. Entering the trade too late – Chasing a trade that had already made its move.
3. Not exiting a trade when I was happy with the gain or my indicators were showing an imminent short term reversal - I think that I missed about 30% additional across the board profits because if this.
4. Mistakes – Being too hasty with my analysis and entering a trade based on what I wanted to see, not what the chart was telling me.
5. Staying in a loosing trade too long when the stock moves against my position - This is a tough one. I like to set my stops above support and resistance which means that my stop could be a couple of dollars above my entry point. As it relates to my option trading, I could loose half of the contract value before being kicked out. OUCH! If I am going to trade support and resistance, I need to work on the timing of my entries
6. NOT TRUSTING MY ANALYSIS & HESITATING TRADE ENTRY – This is my killer. I entered late and missed some nice price moved because of this (number 2 occurs). Overcoming my own fears is the only solution.
Cheers - David
As for trading, it has taken some time to get back into the mix. I paper traded for the month of October with some mixed results. I found that my winning trades outnumbered my loosing trades but my results were inconsistent. After reviewing these trades, I found that my results were inconsistent for the following reasons:
1. Entering the trade in anticipation of a price move (that obviously did not occur) – This caused me the biggest dollar loss in 2 trades – What a big waste of money!!!
2. Entering the trade too late – Chasing a trade that had already made its move.
3. Not exiting a trade when I was happy with the gain or my indicators were showing an imminent short term reversal - I think that I missed about 30% additional across the board profits because if this.
4. Mistakes – Being too hasty with my analysis and entering a trade based on what I wanted to see, not what the chart was telling me.
5. Staying in a loosing trade too long when the stock moves against my position - This is a tough one. I like to set my stops above support and resistance which means that my stop could be a couple of dollars above my entry point. As it relates to my option trading, I could loose half of the contract value before being kicked out. OUCH! If I am going to trade support and resistance, I need to work on the timing of my entries
6. NOT TRUSTING MY ANALYSIS & HESITATING TRADE ENTRY – This is my killer. I entered late and missed some nice price moved because of this (number 2 occurs). Overcoming my own fears is the only solution.
Cheers - David
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