Quick Post - I don’t know how I came to believe that FMOC interest rate announcement was today, but it is not. Come to think about it, I sometimes don’t know what planet I’m on. My mistake may have caused me to miss my entry window on some of my trades… I will know tonight.
Lesson Learned – Get Your Facts Right!
Cheers - David
Thursday, November 16, 2006
Watch List
There are a number of stocks that I have on my watch list that are giving me buy signals (both bullish and bearish) that I have been waiting for. The include ARE, BSC, CMI, GS, MTW, PFE. However, today is not a day for me to enter any trades since it is the FED anouncement day. I have been burned on the last two and promised myself to wait until afterwards. The problem for me is not the anoucement it's self, but my in ability to react prior to the market close. AGN, FTI, FCX, MRO are also on my 'Pending' Watchlist.
I am still in my COF trade - I am watching it closely.
Cheers - David
I am still in my COF trade - I am watching it closely.
Cheers - David
Friday, November 10, 2006
New trade - COF
I entered into a COF Jan 07 80 Put position for $5.60 on 11/2/06. The stock had been on my set-up watch list since mid October 2006 when it retested the 200dma. The stock originally came to my attention when reading Tim Knights blog. I liked what I saw and added it t my list.
I was patiently waiting for the stock to give me a cross over signal on the STO (occurred on 10/27) and MACD (occurred on 10/30), and a breakdown below the 21dma on high volume (occurred on 10/31). For some reason, I did not look at the COF chart on 10/31 (missing the final buy signal) and 11/1 ( a 2nd high volume down day). I entered the following day. On the day of entry, it took me an hour to pull the trigger which facilitated me buying my put at the bottom for the day (a bit late, don’t you think!!!)… A contingent stop order was set at 79.00 based on resistance and allowable loss for a trade.
Look at how the trade is currently progressing, my indicators are showing that a short term reversal maybe on the way, however, I am going to see if the 50dma holds as resistance.
Lessons Learned on this trade so far:
1. Get over yourself and just pull the trigger. Trust your analysis and follow through
2. Check your watch lists daily. Looking at this trade, the stock had already moved 5-8% before entry.
Cheers - David
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
Back online!
2 months have passed since my last post. My world has been upside down getting use to having a new little one in the house, but things are getting better. I must say that having a child is one of the greatest experiences one can have. I see that one of my life’s future achievements will be to watch my kids (one so far) grow up and some day have a life and kids of their own.
As for trading, it has taken some time to get back into the mix. I paper traded for the month of October with some mixed results. I found that my winning trades outnumbered my loosing trades but my results were inconsistent. After reviewing these trades, I found that my results were inconsistent for the following reasons:
1. Entering the trade in anticipation of a price move (that obviously did not occur) – This caused me the biggest dollar loss in 2 trades – What a big waste of money!!!
2. Entering the trade too late – Chasing a trade that had already made its move.
3. Not exiting a trade when I was happy with the gain or my indicators were showing an imminent short term reversal - I think that I missed about 30% additional across the board profits because if this.
4. Mistakes – Being too hasty with my analysis and entering a trade based on what I wanted to see, not what the chart was telling me.
5. Staying in a loosing trade too long when the stock moves against my position - This is a tough one. I like to set my stops above support and resistance which means that my stop could be a couple of dollars above my entry point. As it relates to my option trading, I could loose half of the contract value before being kicked out. OUCH! If I am going to trade support and resistance, I need to work on the timing of my entries
6. NOT TRUSTING MY ANALYSIS & HESITATING TRADE ENTRY – This is my killer. I entered late and missed some nice price moved because of this (number 2 occurs). Overcoming my own fears is the only solution.
Cheers - David
As for trading, it has taken some time to get back into the mix. I paper traded for the month of October with some mixed results. I found that my winning trades outnumbered my loosing trades but my results were inconsistent. After reviewing these trades, I found that my results were inconsistent for the following reasons:
1. Entering the trade in anticipation of a price move (that obviously did not occur) – This caused me the biggest dollar loss in 2 trades – What a big waste of money!!!
2. Entering the trade too late – Chasing a trade that had already made its move.
3. Not exiting a trade when I was happy with the gain or my indicators were showing an imminent short term reversal - I think that I missed about 30% additional across the board profits because if this.
4. Mistakes – Being too hasty with my analysis and entering a trade based on what I wanted to see, not what the chart was telling me.
5. Staying in a loosing trade too long when the stock moves against my position - This is a tough one. I like to set my stops above support and resistance which means that my stop could be a couple of dollars above my entry point. As it relates to my option trading, I could loose half of the contract value before being kicked out. OUCH! If I am going to trade support and resistance, I need to work on the timing of my entries
6. NOT TRUSTING MY ANALYSIS & HESITATING TRADE ENTRY – This is my killer. I entered late and missed some nice price moved because of this (number 2 occurs). Overcoming my own fears is the only solution.
Cheers - David
Friday, September 08, 2006
Been Hiding ... Haven't I
My wife and I have a little girl due in the next day or so, so trading has been the most distant thing from my mind lately… Things are crazy… Wife is hormonal… We are both freaking out because we have no idea what to expect…. Ahhhhhh!
As for the trades I entered some weeks ago. I must say it was a disappointing effort on my behalf. I had made a nice gain on the trades prior to the last announcement, but failed to follow my own lessons learned and exit the day prior to the announcement… Market rallied, stopped out with an OK gain on the majority of the trades, but took a 7% hit on the GS trade. Not good.
Anyway, I need to pay better attention to what I am doing.
Good luck and best wishes to you.
Thanks - David
As for the trades I entered some weeks ago. I must say it was a disappointing effort on my behalf. I had made a nice gain on the trades prior to the last announcement, but failed to follow my own lessons learned and exit the day prior to the announcement… Market rallied, stopped out with an OK gain on the majority of the trades, but took a 7% hit on the GS trade. Not good.
Anyway, I need to pay better attention to what I am doing.
Good luck and best wishes to you.
Thanks - David
Monday, August 14, 2006
Nerve Racking Experience
Lately, I have been trying to comprehend and control my hopes and fears of losing money. Although most of the anxiety was psychological, some of the severe anxiety I experienced actually manifested physically, i.e. pain at the back of the head, sweats and shakes. I was obsessed with every stock tick of every trade that I was in. While it is natural to not want to lose money, I seriously had a problem.
At the time of my last post, my excuse for not wanting to enter a live trade was that I was waiting for the FED announcement. The announcement came and went (what an over rated experience that was) and I hadn’t entered a trade. It took until the 10th before I was able to muster up the courage. The first few days were bad, I had been in the red (only a few hundred dollars, but in the red all the same!). While I drove to work today the DOW gapped up 60+ at open. This put me in an instant state of anxiety. I was invested in some option put trades and thought that all my fears had been realized and that I had just lost a substantial amount of money. When I looked at my account I found that both my hopes and fears were being realized at the same time. While two of the trades pushed deeper into the red, two others were performing well, putting my account into a positive position! I did not expect this.
I am reading ‘The Coming Economic Collapse” by Stephen Leeb at the moment. On page 58, he quotes Jesse Livermore (Edwin Lefevre’s Reminiscence if a Stock Operator):
“It is inseparable from human nature to hope and fear. In speculation when the market goes against you, you hope that every day will be the last day-and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope-to the same ally that is so potent a success-bringer to empire builders and pioneers, big and little. And when the market goes your way you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit, and you get out-too soon. The successful trader has to fight these two deep seated instincts”.
While I cannot say that I am cured of my problem, I have reached a turning point in both my ability and attitude towards trading. Hope and fear will always be there, but I have started taking steps to manage and control these powerful forces.
Based on this learning experience I am training myself to think differently… My thinking should not be ‘how much will I gain today, it should be along the lines of ‘how much will I lose today’. I have come to learn that losing money is a part of trading and I MUST accept it if I am going to succeed. I need to accept loses and move on. The only caveat is that I need to make sure that my winning trades are greater than my losing trades.
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Below is a screenshot of my current trades (live). As noted above, I entered these trades on 8/10/06. I have contingent stops in place for each. I will not go into detail about the stops at the moment, because depending on PPI and CPI announcements over the next two days, I may chose to tighten them BMO tomorrow.
At the time of my last post, my excuse for not wanting to enter a live trade was that I was waiting for the FED announcement. The announcement came and went (what an over rated experience that was) and I hadn’t entered a trade. It took until the 10th before I was able to muster up the courage. The first few days were bad, I had been in the red (only a few hundred dollars, but in the red all the same!). While I drove to work today the DOW gapped up 60+ at open. This put me in an instant state of anxiety. I was invested in some option put trades and thought that all my fears had been realized and that I had just lost a substantial amount of money. When I looked at my account I found that both my hopes and fears were being realized at the same time. While two of the trades pushed deeper into the red, two others were performing well, putting my account into a positive position! I did not expect this.
I am reading ‘The Coming Economic Collapse” by Stephen Leeb at the moment. On page 58, he quotes Jesse Livermore (Edwin Lefevre’s Reminiscence if a Stock Operator):
“It is inseparable from human nature to hope and fear. In speculation when the market goes against you, you hope that every day will be the last day-and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope-to the same ally that is so potent a success-bringer to empire builders and pioneers, big and little. And when the market goes your way you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit, and you get out-too soon. The successful trader has to fight these two deep seated instincts”.
While I cannot say that I am cured of my problem, I have reached a turning point in both my ability and attitude towards trading. Hope and fear will always be there, but I have started taking steps to manage and control these powerful forces.
Based on this learning experience I am training myself to think differently… My thinking should not be ‘how much will I gain today, it should be along the lines of ‘how much will I lose today’. I have come to learn that losing money is a part of trading and I MUST accept it if I am going to succeed. I need to accept loses and move on. The only caveat is that I need to make sure that my winning trades are greater than my losing trades.
_________________________________
Below is a screenshot of my current trades (live). As noted above, I entered these trades on 8/10/06. I have contingent stops in place for each. I will not go into detail about the stops at the moment, because depending on PPI and CPI announcements over the next two days, I may chose to tighten them BMO tomorrow.
Monday, August 07, 2006
About Time!
It has been about a week and a half since my last posting. There has been no real reason for this other than being short of a little time (while I finish up remodeling my house and preparing for the birth of my first child at the end of the month!) and waiting for the damn obsessive FED announcement on Tuesday. I have managed to get on line and look at each day’s action, but finding the time to make a post have been difficult. I need to work on that.
On the last post, I said that I have been waiting for the market to tell me which way it is going to go. Revisiting the DOW chart that was also posted, we can see that it has completed its move to the drawn resistance line. On Thursday, the index broke through resistance to close just above. On Friday, It surged +100 points to a new high, it then dropped around -150 points to make the session low and then rose approx +50 points to closed just above resistance. What a couple of days!
$INDU 60d/60m chart
On the last post, I said that I have been waiting for the market to tell me which way it is going to go. Revisiting the DOW chart that was also posted, we can see that it has completed its move to the drawn resistance line. On Thursday, the index broke through resistance to close just above. On Friday, It surged +100 points to a new high, it then dropped around -150 points to make the session low and then rose approx +50 points to closed just above resistance. What a couple of days!
$INDU 60d/60m chart
Looking at the chart, Volume appears to have been gradually rising over the last ½ a month. My Sto and MACD look to be getting ready to tip, RSI appears to be increasing and OBV downwards. The unknown – What the FED is going to say and how the market will react.
In my mind, The DOW has completed this leg up, but the index still does not give me any clear indication as to what to do. I wan to buy some select puts, but I remain cautious until tomorrow. My expectation is that it will make another leg down after the FED announcement. Based on what I have been reading in the news media and on other blogs, the economic outlook is bleak and there is little reason for the market to rally.
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As for current trades, I still have the QCOM strangle. I added some DIA Puts last week. I am looking at entering a number of new trades after Tuesday.
Good Luck - David
Thursday, July 27, 2006
The Straddle, I mean strangle trade...
Trade Update 7/27/06
As I have recently been saying, I have been waiting for the market to tell me which way it is going to go. For the last couple of months, the DOW has been trading between 11700 and 10650. I am waiting the market to either break through or bounce down from resistance on high volume. Interestingly enough, the market looks to test resistance on or about the next FED announcement date.
7/27/06 $INDU 60d60m Chart
Below is a screen sot of my current trade as of market close on 7/26/06
I only have one trade now. You guessed it, that (so called) straddle trade that I entered some time ago… I have actually been wrong all this time. It is not a straddle trade but a strangle trade. Investopedia provides a fine description of the strange trade. Anyway, as I have come to learn from this trade experience that this type of trade is only profitable when a large price movement is occurs. I have been in this QCOM trade since around 7/12/06 and there has not been one of those large price movement thing-a-me-jigs… This why I am yet to make and profit! I still have a few weeks until expiration, so I will see how it goes.
I lost RIG yesterday to my stop for a 50% profit.
Good Luck - David
As I have recently been saying, I have been waiting for the market to tell me which way it is going to go. For the last couple of months, the DOW has been trading between 11700 and 10650. I am waiting the market to either break through or bounce down from resistance on high volume. Interestingly enough, the market looks to test resistance on or about the next FED announcement date.
7/27/06 $INDU 60d60m Chart
Below is a screen sot of my current trade as of market close on 7/26/06
I only have one trade now. You guessed it, that (so called) straddle trade that I entered some time ago… I have actually been wrong all this time. It is not a straddle trade but a strangle trade. Investopedia provides a fine description of the strange trade. Anyway, as I have come to learn from this trade experience that this type of trade is only profitable when a large price movement is occurs. I have been in this QCOM trade since around 7/12/06 and there has not been one of those large price movement thing-a-me-jigs… This why I am yet to make and profit! I still have a few weeks until expiration, so I will see how it goes.
I lost RIG yesterday to my stop for a 50% profit.
Good Luck - David
Wednesday, July 26, 2006
Trade Update 7/26/06 BMO
Almost all stocks on my watch list appear oversold or neutral. I am waiting on the market to give me conformation of what direction it is going at the moment. Long Term – still bullish, mid term - cautiously bullish, short term… not to sure!
Below is a screen sot of my current trades as of market close on 7/25/06.
Below is a screen sot of my current trades as of market close on 7/25/06.
.EOGTN – Lost to stop on 7/21/06 for a profit of 51.07 after commissions. I could be still in the trade if the stop was above my resistance line.
.AAOHH & AAOTU – Straddle Play, still watching the numbers! The call is all but worthless now and the put has doubled its value. I am in the red by about $10
.RIGTQ – Hold @ 75.79 – I am still in the trade. My indicators are showing that the stock is moving from oversold to neutral ground.
Good Luck - David
Below is a screen sot of my current trades as of market close on 7/25/06.
Below is a screen sot of my current trades as of market close on 7/25/06.
.EOGTN – Lost to stop on 7/21/06 for a profit of 51.07 after commissions. I could be still in the trade if the stop was above my resistance line.
.AAOHH & AAOTU – Straddle Play, still watching the numbers! The call is all but worthless now and the put has doubled its value. I am in the red by about $10
.RIGTQ – Hold @ 75.79 – I am still in the trade. My indicators are showing that the stock is moving from oversold to neutral ground.
Good Luck - David
Tuesday, July 25, 2006
A Pause in my Posts - Time is on my side
Sorry about the lack of posts since last Friday. Many things to do, so little time. I have managed to look at my positions each day and look at some potential new trades, but have not had the chance to post on the blog.
Update: I have lost all but three positions now and the market is in this frustrating state. All my indicators are pointing to an oversold state, but I don't have a bull feeling about the market. I am getting mixed messages and are not too sure what to do. As some one posted on a blog I read today, 'I want to go short, but all I see are longs. It is neither the right time to go short or long at the moment.' For me, a bullish sign is the Dow breaking 11248. A bearish sign will be the Dow falling below 10600ish.
I really really really want to get in some trades. I need to maintain my discipline and wait for confirmation. Time is on my side.
Cheers - David
Update: I have lost all but three positions now and the market is in this frustrating state. All my indicators are pointing to an oversold state, but I don't have a bull feeling about the market. I am getting mixed messages and are not too sure what to do. As some one posted on a blog I read today, 'I want to go short, but all I see are longs. It is neither the right time to go short or long at the moment.' For me, a bullish sign is the Dow breaking 11248. A bearish sign will be the Dow falling below 10600ish.
I really really really want to get in some trades. I need to maintain my discipline and wait for confirmation. Time is on my side.
Cheers - David
Friday, July 21, 2006
Its Friday, I had to drag myself out of Bed Today
I slept in because I knew my trade review would be quick easy for me today. I am holding all my positions today with not stop changes. I have started looking at my watchlist for some trades to enter next week. I hope to post something about them on the week end.
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Below is a screen sot of my current trades as of market close on 7/20/06.
As usual, below are the adjustments that I made to my current trades before market open. I have adjusted them to lock in profits and/or minimize possible losses.
.DVNTL – Hold at 61.80.
.EOGTN – I stopped out of EOG yesterday for a 7% profit. Some of my stops are too tight. I still should be in this trade. EOG & DVN are trading very similarly.
.AAOHH & AAOTU – Straddle Play, still watching the numbers!
.RIGTQ – Hold @ 75.79 – My 2nd profit target for RIG is 70.04.
For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you develop your own trading systems, strategies and rules, conduct your analysis, come to your own conclusions and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near qualified to make such recommendations.
Good Luck - David
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Below is a screen sot of my current trades as of market close on 7/20/06.
As usual, below are the adjustments that I made to my current trades before market open. I have adjusted them to lock in profits and/or minimize possible losses.
.DVNTL – Hold at 61.80.
.EOGTN – I stopped out of EOG yesterday for a 7% profit. Some of my stops are too tight. I still should be in this trade. EOG & DVN are trading very similarly.
.AAOHH & AAOTU – Straddle Play, still watching the numbers!
.RIGTQ – Hold @ 75.79 – My 2nd profit target for RIG is 70.04.
For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you develop your own trading systems, strategies and rules, conduct your analysis, come to your own conclusions and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near qualified to make such recommendations.
Good Luck - David
Thursday, July 20, 2006
Easy One Today!
Just a few trades now. I am looking forward to doing my backwards analysis of my trades. This should give me some good lessons learned and help refine my future trading strategies.
Below is a screen sot of my current trades as of market close on 7/19/06.
As usual, below are the adjustments that I made to my current trades before market open. I have adjusted them to lock in profits and/or minimize possible losses. The anticipated bounce on the major indices did not occur today, but the expectation is still there. I expect to be stopped out of many of these trades in the coming days.
.DVNTL – Hold at 61.80
.EOGTN – Hold at 68.56
.AAOHH & AAOTU – Straddle Play, still watching the numbers! Very interesting, it appears that the option value in both directions is decreasing. Looking at the chart, the stock has been in this 2pt+/- trading range for the last week or so.
.RIGTQ – Changed to 75.79. I have made my profit. From looking at the chart, the stock appears to have entered a – My profit target for RIG was 76.68. I passed my first profit target!
For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you develop your own trading systems, strategies and rules, conduct your analysis, come to your own conclusions and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near qualified to make such recommendations.
Good Luck - David
Below is a screen sot of my current trades as of market close on 7/19/06.
As usual, below are the adjustments that I made to my current trades before market open. I have adjusted them to lock in profits and/or minimize possible losses. The anticipated bounce on the major indices did not occur today, but the expectation is still there. I expect to be stopped out of many of these trades in the coming days.
.DVNTL – Hold at 61.80
.EOGTN – Hold at 68.56
.AAOHH & AAOTU – Straddle Play, still watching the numbers! Very interesting, it appears that the option value in both directions is decreasing. Looking at the chart, the stock has been in this 2pt+/- trading range for the last week or so.
.RIGTQ – Changed to 75.79. I have made my profit. From looking at the chart, the stock appears to have entered a – My profit target for RIG was 76.68. I passed my first profit target!
For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you develop your own trading systems, strategies and rules, conduct your analysis, come to your own conclusions and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near qualified to make such recommendations.
Good Luck - David
Wednesday, July 19, 2006
B B B BB BB BBB BBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBOUNCE!
There was that bounce that we were expecting. For a great commentary on the events of the day I will give you the usual recommendation to read Trader Tim’s Blog posting today. Make sure you read the comments. Some of these guys have some amazing insight into the market.
As expected, I was stopped out of the majority of my current trades today for a modest profit. They could have been better. I think I need to put some more thought to the application of my stop strategy when the market is moving like this. My intuition told me to get out the other day when the DOW bounced off 10701. Today's bounce was imminent.
The put trades I stopped out of today include:
.BNITO – Stopped out today for a 29% gain in 12 calendar days. Sold @ 73.57, I did not reach my profit target of 72.25.
.DOTQ – Stopped out today for a 93% gain in 12 calendar days. Sold @ 73.30, my profit target was 79.50. Great Trade!
.LSSTL – Stopped out today for a 22% gain in 12 calendar days. Sold @ 51.80, I did not reach my profit target of 50.07.
.MLMTR – Stopped out today for a 111% gain in 12 calendar days. Sold @ 79.43, my profit target was 77.15.
.NYXUK – Stopped out today for a 16% gain in 12 calendar days..
.XBTTF – Stopped out for a .05% gain. No loss on commissions! Sold at 56.73, my profit target was 50.56. I am disappointed with this trade. It did not budge on market down days. I could have sold it for a 22% gain when the market went to 10701, but I stayed in waiting for the stop to be triggered.
.TRNTH – Stopped out today for a 63% gain in 12 calendar days. Sold @ 31.05, my profit target for TRN was 30.39.
Based on these trades and the trades exited in the last few days, I have had a gain of about 42% in 12 days. It could have been more, it could have been less. I was lucky. Note that if I had of exited these trades the day the DOW bounced off 10701, my gain would have been around 67% in about 9-10 days. Its something to ponder, however at the end of the day, I am very happy with the outcome. It exceeded my expectations!
I think I have 3 open trades now. I need to start looking for some more to enter. I feel that I need to stay in a holding pattern for the next few days and let the market work itself out and give nme some direction. The time to get back in with some new trades will be soon enough.
For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you develop your own trading systems, strategies and rules, conduct your analysis, come to your own conclusions and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near qualified to make such recommendations.
Good Luck and Good Night - David
As expected, I was stopped out of the majority of my current trades today for a modest profit. They could have been better. I think I need to put some more thought to the application of my stop strategy when the market is moving like this. My intuition told me to get out the other day when the DOW bounced off 10701. Today's bounce was imminent.
The put trades I stopped out of today include:
.BNITO – Stopped out today for a 29% gain in 12 calendar days. Sold @ 73.57, I did not reach my profit target of 72.25.
.DOTQ – Stopped out today for a 93% gain in 12 calendar days. Sold @ 73.30, my profit target was 79.50. Great Trade!
.LSSTL – Stopped out today for a 22% gain in 12 calendar days. Sold @ 51.80, I did not reach my profit target of 50.07.
.MLMTR – Stopped out today for a 111% gain in 12 calendar days. Sold @ 79.43, my profit target was 77.15.
.NYXUK – Stopped out today for a 16% gain in 12 calendar days..
.XBTTF – Stopped out for a .05% gain. No loss on commissions! Sold at 56.73, my profit target was 50.56. I am disappointed with this trade. It did not budge on market down days. I could have sold it for a 22% gain when the market went to 10701, but I stayed in waiting for the stop to be triggered.
.TRNTH – Stopped out today for a 63% gain in 12 calendar days. Sold @ 31.05, my profit target for TRN was 30.39.
Based on these trades and the trades exited in the last few days, I have had a gain of about 42% in 12 days. It could have been more, it could have been less. I was lucky. Note that if I had of exited these trades the day the DOW bounced off 10701, my gain would have been around 67% in about 9-10 days. Its something to ponder, however at the end of the day, I am very happy with the outcome. It exceeded my expectations!
I think I have 3 open trades now. I need to start looking for some more to enter. I feel that I need to stay in a holding pattern for the next few days and let the market work itself out and give nme some direction. The time to get back in with some new trades will be soon enough.
For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you develop your own trading systems, strategies and rules, conduct your analysis, come to your own conclusions and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near qualified to make such recommendations.
Good Luck and Good Night - David
YHOOOOOO Down the Tube!
Its abit late... I had to get to work before I could upload the blog post I had written this morning. Anyhow here is what I had written BMO thismorning!
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Guess I was wrong about Yahoo! If I had of stayed in, I would be up 250% on the trade. Oh well, not to worry. I had my strategy mapped out and I stuck to it. I would be patting myself on the back if the earnings had been the other way.
One thing I have learned is that Discipline is the Key to being a good trader. It will protect you from your self!
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Below is a screen sot of my current trades as of market close on 7/18/06.
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Guess I was wrong about Yahoo! If I had of stayed in, I would be up 250% on the trade. Oh well, not to worry. I had my strategy mapped out and I stuck to it. I would be patting myself on the back if the earnings had been the other way.
One thing I have learned is that Discipline is the Key to being a good trader. It will protect you from your self!
_________________
Below is a screen sot of my current trades as of market close on 7/18/06.
As usual, below are the adjustments that I made to my current trades before market open. I have adjusted them to lock in profits and/or minimize possible losses. The anticipated bounce on the major indices did not occur today, but the expectation is still there. I expect to be stopped out of many of these trades in the coming days.
.BNITO – Changed to 73.36 – Probable time to get out of this one.
.DVNTL – Hold at 61.80 -
.DOTQ – Changed to 73.24 – Closed just above 72 @ 72.20
.EOGTN – Changed to 68.56
.QMHTK – Stopped out today for a 12% gain in 11 calendar days. I did not reach my profit target of 46.27.
.LSSTL – Changed to 51.78 – My 1st profit target is 50.07.
.MLMTR – Changed to 76.65 – The stock passed it profit target, it is looking to bounce. Its time to get out with a good profit
.NYXUK – Hold @ 62.55 – Still not stopped out!
.AAOHH & AAOTU – Straddle Play, still watching the numbers!
.XBTTF – Changed to 56.70 – It appears to be making a move now.
.RIGTQ – Changed to 76.14 – My profit target for RIG was 76.68. I passed my first profit target!
.TRNTH – Hold @ 34.77 – My profit target for TRN is 30.39.
.UNPTR –Stopped out yesterday for a 43% gain. I did not reach my profit target of 84.77.
.YHQVG – Exited trade yesterday before close for a 12% gain. Guess I was wrong about its earnings call. If I had of stayed in, I would be 200% up today! Its OK, I planned my trade, and executed it as planned. If it had of jumped, I would have been thankfull.
For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you develop your own trading systems, strategies and rules, conduct your analysis, come to your own conclusions and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near qualified to make such recommendations.
Good Luck - David
Tuesday, July 18, 2006
PPI Numbers - Lets see what they do.
Below is YHOO Finance Market update for PPI Numbers.
"08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.5. Futures trade pulls back following PPI data, still indicating a modestly lower open for the indices. Total PPI rose a larger than expected 0.5% (consensus 0.3%) in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) rose 0.2%, matching economists' forecasts. Bonds, which were down ahead of the data, have weakened, as the 10-yr note is now down 7 ticks to yield 5.09 %. "
Lets see how they affect my current trades.
"08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.5. Futures trade pulls back following PPI data, still indicating a modestly lower open for the indices. Total PPI rose a larger than expected 0.5% (consensus 0.3%) in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) rose 0.2%, matching economists' forecasts. Bonds, which were down ahead of the data, have weakened, as the 10-yr note is now down 7 ticks to yield 5.09 %. "
Lets see how they affect my current trades.
Monday, July 17, 2006
CPI, PPI, Earnings & an Anticipated Market Bounce!
The anticipated market bounce did not occur today. I think that the market is waiting for tomorrow’s CPI/PPI announcement. From what I understand, if the numbers are good, there will be a number of sharp gap ups in the market at open. If that occurs, it will induce what I hope to be a short lived rally where the opportunity to enter some new put trades may arise. I have never been through a CPI/PPI announcement, so I don’t know what to expect. If the market gaps up tomorrow, I am sure that it will take a good share of the 65% paper gain that I had been nurturing the last two weeks. We will see.
A guy by the name of Mark posted the following comment on Trader Tim’s blog today. I agree with his thoughts:
“DOW temp bottom, or pause on the way?That is the biggest question for today.
For those that haven't shopped for their August+ puts, it is probably a good time to look. Especially if the market sprints North like most peoples' guts are telling them.
Hard to say how long this pause in the DOW will last, like the last couple lasting 7-9 days each. And which way will it break?It should get over 10900 to complete the second sholder. But if there is enough catalist, it doesn't even need to do that and just drop to 10400-10500.
If it does drop to that level, it will likely spring back up to 10700 right after.I think Tony said it sometime recently, it may be Wed or Thurs before we see movement again. If it heads North, it makes for a really good technical bottom for the h&s to hit 10900-11000.”
_________________
Below is a screen sot of my current trades as of market close on 7/17/06.
As usual, below are the adjustments that I made to my current trades before market open. I have adjusted them to lock in profits and/or minimize possible losses. The anticipated bounce on the major indices did not occur today, but the expectation is still there. I expect to be stopped out of many of these trades in the coming days.
.QAATY – Stopped out today for a 32% gain in 10 calendar days.
.BNITO – Hold @ 73.36 - The stock closed right at its support line surpassing my profit target of 72.25. My indicators appear to show an oversold condition.
.DVNTL – Hold at 61.80
.DOTQ – Change to 76.30 - It looks like it may find support at 72 and bounce or continue on its way down.
.EOGTN – Hold @ 69.63 – I am glad that I was patient. It appears to be making its move now.
.ETTX – Stopped out today for a 93% gain in 10 calendar days. I did not reach my profit target of 21.00.
.QMHTK – Hold @ 51.07 – My profit target for HWAY is 46.27
.LSSTL – Changed to 52.96 – My 1st profit target is 50.07.
.MLMTR – Changed to 79.58 – It My profit target is 77.15. It needs to break 76.90.
.NYXUK – Changed to 62.55 – I may get stopped out on this trade tomorrow.
.AAOHH & AAOTU – Straddle Play, still watching the numbers!
.XBTTF – Changed to 57.51 – It appears to be making a move now.
.RIGTQ – Changed to 77.55 – My profit target for RIG is 76.68
.TRNTH – Hold @ 35.00 – My profit target for TRN is 30.39
.UNPTR – Changed to 86.48 –My profit target for UNP is 84.77.
.YHQVG – Hold @ 32.48. Forgot to exit the trade, looks I am going to be in it for the earnings call. My guess is that it will be good & the stock will gap-up to above 33.23. If not, it will head down to 30.23.
For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you develop your own trading systems, strategies and rules, conduct your analysis, come to your own conclusions and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near qualified to make such recommendations.
Good Luck - David
A guy by the name of Mark posted the following comment on Trader Tim’s blog today. I agree with his thoughts:
“DOW temp bottom, or pause on the way?That is the biggest question for today.
For those that haven't shopped for their August+ puts, it is probably a good time to look. Especially if the market sprints North like most peoples' guts are telling them.
Hard to say how long this pause in the DOW will last, like the last couple lasting 7-9 days each. And which way will it break?It should get over 10900 to complete the second sholder. But if there is enough catalist, it doesn't even need to do that and just drop to 10400-10500.
If it does drop to that level, it will likely spring back up to 10700 right after.I think Tony said it sometime recently, it may be Wed or Thurs before we see movement again. If it heads North, it makes for a really good technical bottom for the h&s to hit 10900-11000.”
_________________
Below is a screen sot of my current trades as of market close on 7/17/06.
As usual, below are the adjustments that I made to my current trades before market open. I have adjusted them to lock in profits and/or minimize possible losses. The anticipated bounce on the major indices did not occur today, but the expectation is still there. I expect to be stopped out of many of these trades in the coming days..QAATY – Stopped out today for a 32% gain in 10 calendar days.
.BNITO – Hold @ 73.36 - The stock closed right at its support line surpassing my profit target of 72.25. My indicators appear to show an oversold condition.
.DVNTL – Hold at 61.80
.DOTQ – Change to 76.30 - It looks like it may find support at 72 and bounce or continue on its way down.
.EOGTN – Hold @ 69.63 – I am glad that I was patient. It appears to be making its move now.
.ETTX – Stopped out today for a 93% gain in 10 calendar days. I did not reach my profit target of 21.00.
.QMHTK – Hold @ 51.07 – My profit target for HWAY is 46.27
.LSSTL – Changed to 52.96 – My 1st profit target is 50.07.
.MLMTR – Changed to 79.58 – It My profit target is 77.15. It needs to break 76.90.
.NYXUK – Changed to 62.55 – I may get stopped out on this trade tomorrow.
.AAOHH & AAOTU – Straddle Play, still watching the numbers!
.XBTTF – Changed to 57.51 – It appears to be making a move now.
.RIGTQ – Changed to 77.55 – My profit target for RIG is 76.68
.TRNTH – Hold @ 35.00 – My profit target for TRN is 30.39
.UNPTR – Changed to 86.48 –My profit target for UNP is 84.77.
.YHQVG – Hold @ 32.48. Forgot to exit the trade, looks I am going to be in it for the earnings call. My guess is that it will be good & the stock will gap-up to above 33.23. If not, it will head down to 30.23.
For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you develop your own trading systems, strategies and rules, conduct your analysis, come to your own conclusions and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near qualified to make such recommendations.
Good Luck - David
Stop Strategy
Before market open 7/17/06 – Happy Monday!
Now that it seems that I am starting to make profitable trades, I have been focusing of on developing my stop loss skills to lock in profits and minimize possible losses. Trader Tim recently shared his stop strategy in his blog posting titled Defensive-Trading. There appears to be similarities, however he likes to adjust his stops based on a review of intraday price movements while the market is in play. I would like to be able to do that, but I must conduct my analysis after I get home from work each day, so the strategy I employ is a little more mechanical.
On entry to a particular trade, I establish the stop loss at a previous high or determined resistance level. I want to give the stock plenty of room to make its move. The last thing I want is to be stopped out of a trade prematurely because my initial stop was too tight. For option trades, I find that I allow 20-50% of the premium paid for the initial stop. Once it starts making its move, I find that I like to use the High/Low/Open/Close from previous days, or new resistance levels as the stop.
Below is a screen sot of my current trades as of market close on 7/14/06.
As usual, below are the adjustments that I made to my current trades this morning before market open. I have adjusted them to lock in profits and/or minimize possible losses. Given the anticipation of a bounce on the major indices, I expect to be stopped out of many of these trades in the coming days.
.QAATY – Changed to 51.41
.BNITO – Changed to 73.36
.DVNTL – Hold at 61.80 – I should probably exist this trade. It has not been performing as expected; however, it is yet to break resistance level. It may just need to give it more time.
.DOTQ – Change to 78.00 - My profit target for DO was 78.50 – My stop is now below my PT - Good Trade!
.EOGTN – Hold @ 71.30 – I should probably exist this trade. It has not been performing as expected; however, it is yet to break resistance level.
.ETTX – Changed to 20.61 – I think we will see a bounce in the other direction today and I will get bumped out.
.QMHTK – Changed to 51.07 – Looks to be still on the way down. My profit target for HWAY is 46.27.
.LSSTL – Changed to 53.89 – I think we will see a bounce in the other direction today and I will get bumped out.
.MLMTR – Changed to 80.32 – It is still dropping like a rock. My profit target is 77.15.
.NXYUK – Out @ 3.90 Gain after commissions 90.07
.NYXUK – Changed to 62.55 – It appears to be mow making a downward move.
.AAOHH & AAOTU – Straddle Play, still watching the numbers!
.XBTTF – Hold @ 57.90 - S&P Energy Fund just will not budge. With all the Middle East, Korea and oil issues applying pressure to the market I expect to be stopped out with very little, if any profit. We will see.
.RIGTQ – Changed to 79.44 – Might see a bounce today, not sure.
.TRNTH – Changed to 35.00 – My profit target for TRN is 30.39.
.UNPTR – Changed to 87.45 – I am not sure which direction this will go. I will use Fridays open as my stop. My profit target for UNP is 84.77.
.YHQVG – Changed to 32.48. Earnings this week! There will be a lot of volatility I think.
For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you develop your own trading systems, strategies and rules, conduct your analysis, come to your own conclusions and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near qualified to make such recommendations.
Good Luck - David
P.S. Republished original 9.21am post with addition of image and link to TN blog posting.
Now that it seems that I am starting to make profitable trades, I have been focusing of on developing my stop loss skills to lock in profits and minimize possible losses. Trader Tim recently shared his stop strategy in his blog posting titled Defensive-Trading. There appears to be similarities, however he likes to adjust his stops based on a review of intraday price movements while the market is in play. I would like to be able to do that, but I must conduct my analysis after I get home from work each day, so the strategy I employ is a little more mechanical.
On entry to a particular trade, I establish the stop loss at a previous high or determined resistance level. I want to give the stock plenty of room to make its move. The last thing I want is to be stopped out of a trade prematurely because my initial stop was too tight. For option trades, I find that I allow 20-50% of the premium paid for the initial stop. Once it starts making its move, I find that I like to use the High/Low/Open/Close from previous days, or new resistance levels as the stop.
Below is a screen sot of my current trades as of market close on 7/14/06.
As usual, below are the adjustments that I made to my current trades this morning before market open. I have adjusted them to lock in profits and/or minimize possible losses. Given the anticipation of a bounce on the major indices, I expect to be stopped out of many of these trades in the coming days.
.QAATY – Changed to 51.41
.BNITO – Changed to 73.36
.DVNTL – Hold at 61.80 – I should probably exist this trade. It has not been performing as expected; however, it is yet to break resistance level. It may just need to give it more time.
.DOTQ – Change to 78.00 - My profit target for DO was 78.50 – My stop is now below my PT - Good Trade!
.EOGTN – Hold @ 71.30 – I should probably exist this trade. It has not been performing as expected; however, it is yet to break resistance level.
.ETTX – Changed to 20.61 – I think we will see a bounce in the other direction today and I will get bumped out.
.QMHTK – Changed to 51.07 – Looks to be still on the way down. My profit target for HWAY is 46.27.
.LSSTL – Changed to 53.89 – I think we will see a bounce in the other direction today and I will get bumped out.
.MLMTR – Changed to 80.32 – It is still dropping like a rock. My profit target is 77.15.
.NXYUK – Out @ 3.90 Gain after commissions 90.07
.NYXUK – Changed to 62.55 – It appears to be mow making a downward move.
.AAOHH & AAOTU – Straddle Play, still watching the numbers!
.XBTTF – Hold @ 57.90 - S&P Energy Fund just will not budge. With all the Middle East, Korea and oil issues applying pressure to the market I expect to be stopped out with very little, if any profit. We will see.
.RIGTQ – Changed to 79.44 – Might see a bounce today, not sure.
.TRNTH – Changed to 35.00 – My profit target for TRN is 30.39.
.UNPTR – Changed to 87.45 – I am not sure which direction this will go. I will use Fridays open as my stop. My profit target for UNP is 84.77.
.YHQVG – Changed to 32.48. Earnings this week! There will be a lot of volatility I think.
For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you develop your own trading systems, strategies and rules, conduct your analysis, come to your own conclusions and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near qualified to make such recommendations.
Good Luck - David
P.S. Republished original 9.21am post with addition of image and link to TN blog posting.
Thursday, July 13, 2006
Time to Tighten Some Stops & take Some Money Off The Table
I think today was a definitive move to the downside. Based on the outcome of today’s trading session, I am up 34% on my trades. While I expect tomorrow will be another down day, I think that its time to consider taking some of the profits off the table so it can be divvied up between my wife and the tax man :-)
Below is a screenshot of my current trades.
I don’t intend on closing out any of these positions, partially when my expectation for tomorrow is another down day. However, I will be using much more aggressive stops for many of the trades. Sure I could squeeze some additional points, but as the market has shown me a few times this week, things can change very quickly.
As usual, below are the adjustments that I made to my current trades. I have adjusted them to lock in profits and/or minimize possible losses.
.QAATY – Changed to 55.24
.BNITO – Changed to 73.65 – My profit target for BNI was 72.25. It surpassed that level today. I am going to use today’s open as my stop.
.DVNTL – Changed to 61.80. This stock has held its ground pretty well in light of recent days. I have not seen the move that I was anticipating. Given the oil hysteria and what is going on in the Middle East, I am not totally surprised.
.DOTQ – Change to 78.50 - My profit target for DO was 78.50. That is where I will set my stop loss.
.EOGTN – Change to 71.30 – Like BNI, it is another Energy/Oil & Gas stock that has held its ground.
.ETTX – Changed to 20.98 – I have doubled my money on this trade so far. My profit target for ET is 20.98. I expect this stock to drop to its long term trend line.
.QMHTK – Changed to 52.80. My profit target for HWAY is 46.27. It has a long way to go.
.LSSTL – Changed to 54.50
.MLMTR – Changed to 82.60 – I have doubled my money on this trade so far. It is still dropping like a rock. My profit target is 77.15.
.NXYUK – Changed to 55.63 – I didn’t stop out today. I am surprised.
.NYXUK – Changed to 66.13 – For a mistake, things are going OK.
.AAOHH & AAOTU – Straddle Play. Stock broke through its long tern trend line today. I should probably exit the call, but I want to see how the numbers work.
.RIGTQ – Changed to 80.33 – Nice drop today, broke through its 30DMA.
.TRNTH – Changed to 36.15 – Turning out to be a great trade. My profit target for TRN is 30.39.
.UNPTR – Changed to 88.14 – It go a little stuck there, but appears to be making its move now. My profit target for UNP is 84.77.
.XBTTF – Hold @ 60.15 - S&P Energy Fund just will not budge.
.THQVG – Changed to 33.16. It appeared stuck at the upper limit of its trading range for a bit, but is starting to weaken now. I will exit in the coming days. I don’t think I will ride this one through earnings.
The best thing about posting this blog tonight is that I don’t have to get up at 5am tomorrow to do it! I think that I am going to sleep in an extra hour… Yeaaa!
For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you conduct your analysis, come to your own conclusions and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near qualified to make such recommendations.
Good Luck - David
Below is a screenshot of my current trades.
I don’t intend on closing out any of these positions, partially when my expectation for tomorrow is another down day. However, I will be using much more aggressive stops for many of the trades. Sure I could squeeze some additional points, but as the market has shown me a few times this week, things can change very quickly.
As usual, below are the adjustments that I made to my current trades. I have adjusted them to lock in profits and/or minimize possible losses.
.QAATY – Changed to 55.24
.BNITO – Changed to 73.65 – My profit target for BNI was 72.25. It surpassed that level today. I am going to use today’s open as my stop.
.DVNTL – Changed to 61.80. This stock has held its ground pretty well in light of recent days. I have not seen the move that I was anticipating. Given the oil hysteria and what is going on in the Middle East, I am not totally surprised.
.DOTQ – Change to 78.50 - My profit target for DO was 78.50. That is where I will set my stop loss.
.EOGTN – Change to 71.30 – Like BNI, it is another Energy/Oil & Gas stock that has held its ground.
.ETTX – Changed to 20.98 – I have doubled my money on this trade so far. My profit target for ET is 20.98. I expect this stock to drop to its long term trend line.
.QMHTK – Changed to 52.80. My profit target for HWAY is 46.27. It has a long way to go.
.LSSTL – Changed to 54.50
.MLMTR – Changed to 82.60 – I have doubled my money on this trade so far. It is still dropping like a rock. My profit target is 77.15.
.NXYUK – Changed to 55.63 – I didn’t stop out today. I am surprised.
.NYXUK – Changed to 66.13 – For a mistake, things are going OK.
.AAOHH & AAOTU – Straddle Play. Stock broke through its long tern trend line today. I should probably exit the call, but I want to see how the numbers work.
.RIGTQ – Changed to 80.33 – Nice drop today, broke through its 30DMA.
.TRNTH – Changed to 36.15 – Turning out to be a great trade. My profit target for TRN is 30.39.
.UNPTR – Changed to 88.14 – It go a little stuck there, but appears to be making its move now. My profit target for UNP is 84.77.
.XBTTF – Hold @ 60.15 - S&P Energy Fund just will not budge.
.THQVG – Changed to 33.16. It appeared stuck at the upper limit of its trading range for a bit, but is starting to weaken now. I will exit in the coming days. I don’t think I will ride this one through earnings.
The best thing about posting this blog tonight is that I don’t have to get up at 5am tomorrow to do it! I think that I am going to sleep in an extra hour… Yeaaa!
For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you conduct your analysis, come to your own conclusions and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near qualified to make such recommendations.
Good Luck - David
Quick Market Observation
One particular piece of learning that has been reinforced over the last week is how much individual stocks are tied to the performance of the broader market indexes. I owe my gains to being able to predict the short term market trends, and picking stocks that meet my trading criteria that track close to the broader market. Granted, if the market swung in the other direction yesterday or today, I probably would have stopped out of the majority of my trades, but it didn’t. The market has been my friend - Thank-you.
Remember – Respect the market – It is always right. We are just pawns; it does not care about us. It can and will take our money any time it wants.
Cheers - David
Remember – Respect the market – It is always right. We are just pawns; it does not care about us. It can and will take our money any time it wants.
Cheers - David
Up... Down... Turn Around. Just Make A Decision!
Talk about a fickle market. I really do not know what to expect from it. It seems to be in this indecisive limbo where it refuses to make a decisive move in either direction. I hope that the $INDU breaking its short term trend line yesterday is a beginning. Some of the comments that I have read state that yesterday’s sell-off was unconvincing due to the lack of volume. They said that it needed to be at least 1.8b. I am not sure what to think myself. I am very thank-full that I am able tap into their insight.
Below is a screenshot of my current trades as of Market Close on 7/12/06.
It seems that not freaking out at the upswing a couple of days back and not giving into my fear was a good decision. By the end of yesterdays trading session, my gain had increased from 3% to 14% for the week and I did not lose any trades to my stops. This is very encouraging. I owe some thanks for this to Trader Tim and his June 13, 2006 blog post titled Don’t Make this Mistake, and the couple of negatives experiences of my own.
Below are the adjustments that I made to my current trades before market open today. I have adjusted them down to lock in profits and/or minimize possible losses.
.QAATY – Changed to 56.49
.BNITO – Hold @ 78.71
.DVNTL – Hold @ 63.35
.DOTQ – Hold @ 81.50
.EOGTN – Hold @ 72.45
.ETTX – Changed to 22.03
.QMHTK – Hold @ 53.94
.LSSTL – Hold @ 58.33
.MLMTR – Changed to 86.31
.NXYUK – Hold 56.29 – May be to aggressive, we will see.
.NYXUK Hold @ 69.62
.AAOHH & AAOTU – No Stop – Playing with straddle.
.RIGTQ – Hold @ 81.57
.TRNTH – Changed to 38.30
.UNPTR – Changed to 90.79
.XBTTF – Hold @ 60.15
.THQVG – Hold @34.09
For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you conduct your analysis, come to your own conclusions and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no where near qualified to make such recommendations.
Good Luck - David
Below is a screenshot of my current trades as of Market Close on 7/12/06.
It seems that not freaking out at the upswing a couple of days back and not giving into my fear was a good decision. By the end of yesterdays trading session, my gain had increased from 3% to 14% for the week and I did not lose any trades to my stops. This is very encouraging. I owe some thanks for this to Trader Tim and his June 13, 2006 blog post titled Don’t Make this Mistake, and the couple of negatives experiences of my own.
Below are the adjustments that I made to my current trades before market open today. I have adjusted them down to lock in profits and/or minimize possible losses.
.QAATY – Changed to 56.49
.BNITO – Hold @ 78.71
.DVNTL – Hold @ 63.35
.DOTQ – Hold @ 81.50
.EOGTN – Hold @ 72.45
.ETTX – Changed to 22.03
.QMHTK – Hold @ 53.94
.LSSTL – Hold @ 58.33
.MLMTR – Changed to 86.31
.NXYUK – Hold 56.29 – May be to aggressive, we will see.
.NYXUK Hold @ 69.62
.AAOHH & AAOTU – No Stop – Playing with straddle.
.RIGTQ – Hold @ 81.57
.TRNTH – Changed to 38.30
.UNPTR – Changed to 90.79
.XBTTF – Hold @ 60.15
.THQVG – Hold @34.09
For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you conduct your analysis, come to your own conclusions and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no where near qualified to make such recommendations.
Good Luck - David
Wednesday, July 12, 2006
Trade Update - Pre-market 7/12/06
Yesterday was a wild day. At 1pm, I was up 16% on my trades, not bad! The market had broken through my support lines and my expectation was it would stay below it for the remainder of the day. Then around 1.38pm, the market entered into a crazy upswing to close in the positive. By the end of the trading session, my 16% gain finished up as only a 3% gain…
Below is a screenshot of my current trades.
I have made the mistake twice where I have exited a trade out of fear of what I think the market will do - Only to loose money. This time around I am going to adjust stops. After conducting an analysis, I have found that I am not going to do anything for about half my current trades. For the others, I have adjusted them down to lock in profits and/or minimize possible losses if we see an upswing like yesterday. Below are the adjustments that I have made.
.QAATY – Hold @ 57.60
.BATQ – Stopped out at 4.50 – What was a 500+ gain, ended up only being 30.07. Very disappointing. I am considering entering a trade in the other direction. I need to do my analysis.
.BNITO – Changed to 78.71
.DVNTL – Hold @ 63.35
.DOTQ – Changed to 81.50
.EOGTN – Hold @ 72.45
.ETTX – Changed to 22.45
.QMHTK – Hold @ 53.94
.LSSTL – Hold @ 58.33
.MLMTR – Changed to 88.73
.NXYUK – Hold 57.99
.NYXUK Hold @ 69.62
.AAOHH & AAOTU – No Stop – Playing with straddle.
.RIGTQ – Hold @ 81.57
.TRNTH – Changed to 39.01
.UNPTR – Changed to 92.50
.XBTTF – Hold @ 60.15
.THQVG – Hold @34.09
For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you conduct your analysis and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near qualified to make such recommendations.
Good Luck - David
Below is a screenshot of my current trades.
I have made the mistake twice where I have exited a trade out of fear of what I think the market will do - Only to loose money. This time around I am going to adjust stops. After conducting an analysis, I have found that I am not going to do anything for about half my current trades. For the others, I have adjusted them down to lock in profits and/or minimize possible losses if we see an upswing like yesterday. Below are the adjustments that I have made.
.QAATY – Hold @ 57.60
.BATQ – Stopped out at 4.50 – What was a 500+ gain, ended up only being 30.07. Very disappointing. I am considering entering a trade in the other direction. I need to do my analysis.
.BNITO – Changed to 78.71
.DVNTL – Hold @ 63.35
.DOTQ – Changed to 81.50
.EOGTN – Hold @ 72.45
.ETTX – Changed to 22.45
.QMHTK – Hold @ 53.94
.LSSTL – Hold @ 58.33
.MLMTR – Changed to 88.73
.NXYUK – Hold 57.99
.NYXUK Hold @ 69.62
.AAOHH & AAOTU – No Stop – Playing with straddle.
.RIGTQ – Hold @ 81.57
.TRNTH – Changed to 39.01
.UNPTR – Changed to 92.50
.XBTTF – Hold @ 60.15
.THQVG – Hold @34.09
For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you conduct your analysis and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near qualified to make such recommendations.
Good Luck - David
Tuesday, July 11, 2006
7/10/06 Trade Updates
Below is a screenshot of my current trades.
After review of today’s (7/10/06) market action and price changes, I made the following adjustments to my contingent stop orders. I have found that I am getting better at selecting stocks, but I really have to work on keeping the money that I make. Stop Management is critical.
.QAATY – Hold @ 57.60
.BATQ – Hold @ 81.60
.BINTO – Hold @ 80.15
.DVNTL – Hold @ 65.25
.DOTQ – Changed to 82.00
.EOGTN – Changed to 72.45
.ETTX – Changed to 22.81
.QMHTK – Changed to 53.94
.LSSTL – Hold @ 58.33
.MLMTR – Changed to 89.40
.NXYUK – Changed to 57.99
.NYXUK Hold @ 69.62
.AAOHH & AAOTU – No Stop
.RIGTQ – Changed to 81.57
.TRNTH – Changed to 40.40
.UNPTR – Changed to 93.01
.XBTTF – Hold @ 60.15
.THQVG – Hold @34.09
Just remember that I do not recommend that you enter these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you conduct your analysis and get professional advice from qualified persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near quallified to make such recommendations.
Lets see how I go today.
Good Luck - David
After review of today’s (7/10/06) market action and price changes, I made the following adjustments to my contingent stop orders. I have found that I am getting better at selecting stocks, but I really have to work on keeping the money that I make. Stop Management is critical.
.QAATY – Hold @ 57.60
.BATQ – Hold @ 81.60
.BINTO – Hold @ 80.15
.DVNTL – Hold @ 65.25
.DOTQ – Changed to 82.00
.EOGTN – Changed to 72.45
.ETTX – Changed to 22.81
.QMHTK – Changed to 53.94
.LSSTL – Hold @ 58.33
.MLMTR – Changed to 89.40
.NXYUK – Changed to 57.99
.NYXUK Hold @ 69.62
.AAOHH & AAOTU – No Stop
.RIGTQ – Changed to 81.57
.TRNTH – Changed to 40.40
.UNPTR – Changed to 93.01
.XBTTF – Hold @ 60.15
.THQVG – Hold @34.09
Just remember that I do not recommend that you enter these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you conduct your analysis and get professional advice from qualified persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near quallified to make such recommendations.
Lets see how I go today.
Good Luck - David
Monday, July 10, 2006
Information Overload - Take #2
A couple of blog posts back, I was pleased to write about the "Stock Evaluation Sheet" and "trade Evaluation Sheet". They work great, but I find that there is still some double handling of information because I have to transfer data from one sheet to another once I have entered into a trade. I am in the process of consolidating the sheet into one document, no more than sheet. That should make things more efficient.
As for the stocks, I will be monitoring my positions closely this week. Trader Tim had a few interesting things to say on the weekend. I was going to enter a few more trades (BHI, CX, NOV to name a few), but decided that I have enough on the books already.
Thanks - David
As for the stocks, I will be monitoring my positions closely this week. Trader Tim had a few interesting things to say on the weekend. I was going to enter a few more trades (BHI, CX, NOV to name a few), but decided that I have enough on the books already.
Thanks - David
Friday, July 07, 2006
New Trades
Below is a list of my current paper trades. I entered these trades today at market open (other than the BA and QCOM contracts). I have contingent stops based on resistence for each. Some have provided better than expected gains already. The market was my friend today.
I must admit that I have already deviated from my trading rules for some of the above trades (1st step is realization and acknowledgment! – You cannot lie to yourself). If you look at the charts, you will notice that many of these stocks were way above the 30DMA. The common denominator for many of these is that they are indicating topping patters and severely overbought conditions. Stocks such as YHOO and LSS appear to be a trading pattern. I intend on riding them down to the support level.
I consider a number to be high risk, such as MLM and DVN, because they appear to be trading above the 30DMA and show signs of a possible reversal. I will need to monitor these more closely and tighten stops where appropriate.
Another thing to add to the mix is earnings season! Many of the stock on the list have their announcement in the next two weeks. More than likely, I will exit these trades prior to the announcement.
We will see how they go!
Thanks - David
_______________________
Lessons Learned - Trading Errors Kill Profits
Mixed up MSTR for another stock and exited prematurely – Lost 309 and missed out on the 10+point move and 2k profits – DAMMMMMMMMMMMMMM That trade alone would have recovered all my losses suffered last week trading the FED announcement!
Entered NYX instead of NXY – Don’t mix up the symbols. This time I was lucky, NYX is in a down trend, so I decided to keep!
I must admit that I have already deviated from my trading rules for some of the above trades (1st step is realization and acknowledgment! – You cannot lie to yourself). If you look at the charts, you will notice that many of these stocks were way above the 30DMA. The common denominator for many of these is that they are indicating topping patters and severely overbought conditions. Stocks such as YHOO and LSS appear to be a trading pattern. I intend on riding them down to the support level.
I consider a number to be high risk, such as MLM and DVN, because they appear to be trading above the 30DMA and show signs of a possible reversal. I will need to monitor these more closely and tighten stops where appropriate.
Another thing to add to the mix is earnings season! Many of the stock on the list have their announcement in the next two weeks. More than likely, I will exit these trades prior to the announcement.
We will see how they go!
Thanks - David
_______________________
Lessons Learned - Trading Errors Kill Profits
Mixed up MSTR for another stock and exited prematurely – Lost 309 and missed out on the 10+point move and 2k profits – DAMMMMMMMMMMMMMM That trade alone would have recovered all my losses suffered last week trading the FED announcement!
Entered NYX instead of NXY – Don’t mix up the symbols. This time I was lucky, NYX is in a down trend, so I decided to keep!
Information Overload - Keep It Simple Stupid!
I had become really over burdened with too much disorganized information, so I developed a paper system to make it a little easier. Over the last few days, I spent some time creating a “Stock Evaluation Sheet” to assess stocks for trade entry and pick option contracts, and a “Trade Evaluation Sheet” to monitor stops/price targets and assess the trade both during and after exit.
I am now able to quickly conclude if I should wait or enter a particular trade, establish price targets and stops, decide what contracts to buy, monitor trades and do my post trade evaluation. I can then input selective data into my Xls spread sheets. I had originally been using a work book and an over complicated xls spreadsheet to do this, but find it a lot easier to scribble things down on a piece of paper rather than click between different screens on the computer.
Using these sheets, I have found that I can review a stock for entry in about 5-7 minutes, and review a current trade in about 3 minutes. On exit, it takes about 5 minutes to do the exit review and lessens learned. A huge benefit is that I have all my information besides at hand, and don’t have to remember the past. I have also found that the number of trades that I can track simultaneously has increased.
Most of all, it makes the MRS. Very happy! I spend less time on the computer.
Cheers - David
I am now able to quickly conclude if I should wait or enter a particular trade, establish price targets and stops, decide what contracts to buy, monitor trades and do my post trade evaluation. I can then input selective data into my Xls spread sheets. I had originally been using a work book and an over complicated xls spreadsheet to do this, but find it a lot easier to scribble things down on a piece of paper rather than click between different screens on the computer.
Using these sheets, I have found that I can review a stock for entry in about 5-7 minutes, and review a current trade in about 3 minutes. On exit, it takes about 5 minutes to do the exit review and lessens learned. A huge benefit is that I have all my information besides at hand, and don’t have to remember the past. I have also found that the number of trades that I can track simultaneously has increased.
Most of all, it makes the MRS. Very happy! I spend less time on the computer.
Cheers - David
Friday, June 30, 2006
Some Lessons Learned
Watch for the bid ask spread. SNP had a .80 spread which put me a little more behind than expected. In the end, the stock broke through my stop for double the anticipated possible loss.
Need to develop a strategy for big announcement days. Need to tighten stops or get out of the big winning trades (with the profit intact) before big announcements. If I had of gotten out yesterday of my biggest 3 gainers yesterday, my net loss today would have been about 3%, for a net gain of 8-9% from the days before on my portfolio.
I can always have multiple contingent orders ready when a possible major price movement in either direction is expected after a big announcement. Today was one of those days.
Watching and following the broad market indexes is a key factor to being successful trader. I have found that following the broad market indexes, I donÂ’t need to try to hard to look for stocks for potential plays.
Given the events of the day, I need to become better at my bull strategies. I am at a loss at what to play tomorrow. I need to be able to play both ways at a touch of a dime.
I need to practice more. I am becoming much better at picking the stocks, but need to work on my under pressure trades and exits. Looking back, I should have exited those trades that were already nearing my stop before the announcement.
I have worked hard to get this far. I am pleased that I have been able to develop and implement my first real trading strategy and rules. It is definitely a boost to see it work...Butt I need to test it more to refine and have more confidence in it. Not taking into consideration it being FED day today, I think that there is a lot of potential in what is being developed.
Keep on plugging away === YOUR GOAL IS ONE LESS DAY AWAY!!!
;-)
Need to develop a strategy for big announcement days. Need to tighten stops or get out of the big winning trades (with the profit intact) before big announcements. If I had of gotten out yesterday of my biggest 3 gainers yesterday, my net loss today would have been about 3%, for a net gain of 8-9% from the days before on my portfolio.
I can always have multiple contingent orders ready when a possible major price movement in either direction is expected after a big announcement. Today was one of those days.
Watching and following the broad market indexes is a key factor to being successful trader. I have found that following the broad market indexes, I donÂ’t need to try to hard to look for stocks for potential plays.
Given the events of the day, I need to become better at my bull strategies. I am at a loss at what to play tomorrow. I need to be able to play both ways at a touch of a dime.
I need to practice more. I am becoming much better at picking the stocks, but need to work on my under pressure trades and exits. Looking back, I should have exited those trades that were already nearing my stop before the announcement.
I have worked hard to get this far. I am pleased that I have been able to develop and implement my first real trading strategy and rules. It is definitely a boost to see it work...Butt I need to test it more to refine and have more confidence in it. Not taking into consideration it being FED day today, I think that there is a lot of potential in what is being developed.
Keep on plugging away === YOUR GOAL IS ONE LESS DAY AWAY!!!
;-)
Thursday, June 29, 2006
My Current Option Trading Strategy and Rules for Individual Stocks
As noted on my last blog post, I indicated that I would share with you my current option trading strategy and rules for individual stocks. I must emphasize that I am only an amateur trader. This trading strategy and rules for individual stocks is based on my on my own trading style and goals at this moment in my life. These will change in the future. I do not recommend that you use or implement this strategy or trading rules. My only recommendation is that before implementing any strategy, you must conduct your own careful research and obtain advice from experienced financial and trading processionals. I am not a financial or trading professional. The information in this blog is worth as much as you paid for it… ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!
Now for the fun stuff, my current option trading strategy and rules for individual stocks. Since the market appears to be in a declining trend, I have been concentrating on put options, so will outline my strategy and rules for those. Note that my strategy and rules for calls are roughly the opposite. In general, I only want to be in an option trade for up to 3 weeks.
Put Options
We can assume that I have a bearish outlook on the market at the time of the analysis :-)
Now for the fun stuff, my current option trading strategy and rules for individual stocks. Since the market appears to be in a declining trend, I have been concentrating on put options, so will outline my strategy and rules for those. Note that my strategy and rules for calls are roughly the opposite. In general, I only want to be in an option trade for up to 3 weeks.
Put Options
We can assume that I have a bearish outlook on the market at the time of the analysis :-)
- The basic parameters for my stock screen are those that show a declining trend, lower lows and lower highs (supported by a declining industry group trend), trading under its 30 day moving Average line (DMA). Preferably I look for stocks that are coming back up to the 30DMA to make a lower high on peaking MACD and Stochastic and bounces down or tips over at the 30DMA on increasing volume. I also look for declining ROC and negative divergence, partially when looking at stocks showing market top formations.
- Unless the chart provides evidence to the contrary, I establish the lower high as my near-term resistance level and the lower low as my support level.
- For stocks that a making new lows, I identify my profit target by measuring the price move each time the stock price bounces off the 30DMA and returns back and take the average. I use the average number of days for each price move to estimation of how long I expect the next price move to take and the most appropriate expiration month to use. If I cannot use this method to identify my price target, I look at the char for evidence of previous support.
- My entry point is based on the stock closing below the 20DMA. My stop is set just above resistance, and 1st target set at the support level. If the stock breaks down at the support level, I measure the distance between previous support levels to establish a 2nd price target.
- My exit point is when my profit target is reached or if the stock is stopped out. If the stock is showing signs of continual weakness, breaks-down further and surpasses my first profit target, I will establish the 2nd target and lower my stop to the new resistance level to lock in profits. In extreme cases when there is a strong price movement against my favor, I may exit the trade prematurely. I have no desire to be in trades that are going to keep me up at night.
Thanks - Dave
Tuesday, June 27, 2006
Leverage Strategies for Meeting Personal Goals
For me to be able to fulfill my 18 month goal I need to be able to draw in excess of 6-8K /month net from the market. At present, I have a trading account with approx. 10K in funds. Obviously I need to increase my active trading account to well over 100+K so that I do not need to enter trades that are considered overly aggressive or appear to be too high risk. I want to be in a position in which I only need to make around 5% per month to comfortably meet my present goal. I have found that the use of both stock and option strategies will facilitate this.
Leverage Strategies – Calls & Puts
Over the last few weeks I have been learning option trading strategies. Below is an overview of the call and put strategy that I will use.
- Assess the current market to assess whether a bullish (call) or bearish (Put) strategy should be used. I need to consider what the intermediate and short-term market trends are, market momentum and volidility. For the intermediate term, consider what trend market shows for the last 3-6 months. For the short term consider what the trend has been for the last 5 days to few weeks. There are a number of indicators for momentum that can be used and volatility can be determined by looking at volatility indexes (VIX, VXO, VXN).
- Pick some stocks to trade. There are a number of different ways of doing this. My preference is to use Investools or Prophet.net (both are subscriber based, but I think they are worth it) to search for stocks that meet my trade criteria. In addition I research stocks recommended by others I consider to be awesome traders. It must be notes that it is important to develop your own trading style and establish your own trading rules. The way I like to trade and the risks I am willing to take will more than likely be different to how you will trade. As I develop my own trading style and trading systems I will share them with you in future postings.
- Check the chart for the stock (don’t forget the industry as well) and run your analysis based on trading style and system.
- Based on the analysis and the current stock price, I will choose an appropriate expiration date and strike price. Since I am fairly new to the game, and need to get experience under my belt, I will generally be picking at-the-money or in-the-money contracts with an expiration date 2 or months out. I will try and purchase at least 2 contracts at a time so that I have the option to sell one if when the trade breaks even.
- Place the order and monitor on a daily basis.
On my next blog posting I will outline my current option trading strategy and rules for individual stocks
Thanks - Dave
Wednesday, June 21, 2006
It’s Your Money, You Owe It to Yourself to Invest it Wisely
Following on from yesterday’s post I thought that it may be good to articulate the steps I will need to take once stocks have been selected as prospective trades. This needs to be done for EACH AND EVERY STOCK.
- Identify the trend
- Identify the support & resistance
- Identify the profit target
- Identify the stop loss
As for today’s Market, it was definitely a day for the bulls. A number of the broad indexes broke through their downward trend lines and short term resistance levels. From reading a few of the commentaries bouncing around, it appears that most cannot give a definitive indication of which way the market will go. The next few days will be interesting. The market will soon tell us what to do.
Tuesday, June 20, 2006
Forcasting Market Trends
The market is very interesting at the moment. I could try and give you a recap of my interpretation of what’s been going on, but there is no point. I would rather give you a link to someone who, in my opinion, really knows what is going on. There is not too much I can say about Tim Knights blog. It stands on its own. I have been following his blog for the last 6mo now and have to say he is pretty spot on.
Skeptical? As you are aware (well I hope you are) the market started to take its current dive around 5/30, take the time to read is market analysis from the beginning of May 06. You will probably find yourself continuing all the way through June 06 - present and every day from tomorrow on.
As a 'Newbie", regularly reading Tim Knight’s blog has reaffirmed for me the importance of understanding the broader market as a whole, therefore I have come up with the following trading rule that I will use. It is nothing new. Those of you with experience probably live by it already.
Personal Rule for Future Trading Decision’s
Skeptical? As you are aware (well I hope you are) the market started to take its current dive around 5/30, take the time to read is market analysis from the beginning of May 06. You will probably find yourself continuing all the way through June 06 - present and every day from tomorrow on.
As a 'Newbie", regularly reading Tim Knight’s blog has reaffirmed for me the importance of understanding the broader market as a whole, therefore I have come up with the following trading rule that I will use. It is nothing new. Those of you with experience probably live by it already.
Personal Rule for Future Trading Decision’s
- Identify and analyze the trend of the broader market (like the Dow NASDAQ, S&P500 etc)
- Focus on market segments that seem to align with the broader market trend
- Find stocks that align to the above
Thanks - David
Monday, June 19, 2006
This is Just the Beginning!
Well, what do you say on your first posting... I am just am ordinary guy with extraordinary hope and dreams about my future and the ones I love.
Let’s start with the 'Extraordinary Dream' bit.
Below is an extract from an email I sent on March 17, 2006...
______________
If you have the time to read below I would like to tell you my story.
I currently work for a successful general contracting firm. I conduct schedule analysis (predominately earned value, time impact, fee erosion) to determine the probability of a financially successful outcome for major projects (300M+) that run over multi year durations. In essence, it is very similar to Technical Analysis but with its focus being a construction outcome. I am one of these people who love what they do, but have become frustrated and disillusioned because many of my analytical findings (partially when it indicates a possible negative outcome) and recommendations are usually discounted or ignored until it is too late to do something about it. For some time I had been considering a career change. I needed an exit strategy, but did not know what.
[two paragraphs of Blah!, Blah!, Blah!, Blah! (Sorry stuff really)]
I believe that I have found an opportunity to leave corporate life behind and do what I enjoy, i.e. [technical] analysis, a willing person who will be able to act on the findings and recommendations, i.e. me, ultimately for the benefit of those I care for most, i.e. My Wife and future Child (not forgetting myself and my sanity!) . I hope to also teach others some day.
[GOAL #1] I have set myself a goal to leave my corporate career within the next 18 months to become a part time schedule analysis consultant, and stay at home dad/stock trader.
_____________
There you have it. I have set the stage, the extraordinary dream. This blog will be my story of how this 'extraordinary dream' pans out. I hope to share with you what I learn along the way develop some friends as well.
Lets see how it goes - Dave
Let’s start with the 'Extraordinary Dream' bit.
Below is an extract from an email I sent on March 17, 2006...
______________
If you have the time to read below I would like to tell you my story.
I currently work for a successful general contracting firm. I conduct schedule analysis (predominately earned value, time impact, fee erosion) to determine the probability of a financially successful outcome for major projects (300M+) that run over multi year durations. In essence, it is very similar to Technical Analysis but with its focus being a construction outcome. I am one of these people who love what they do, but have become frustrated and disillusioned because many of my analytical findings (partially when it indicates a possible negative outcome) and recommendations are usually discounted or ignored until it is too late to do something about it. For some time I had been considering a career change. I needed an exit strategy, but did not know what.
[two paragraphs of Blah!, Blah!, Blah!, Blah! (Sorry stuff really)]
I believe that I have found an opportunity to leave corporate life behind and do what I enjoy, i.e. [technical] analysis, a willing person who will be able to act on the findings and recommendations, i.e. me, ultimately for the benefit of those I care for most, i.e. My Wife and future Child (not forgetting myself and my sanity!) . I hope to also teach others some day.
[GOAL #1] I have set myself a goal to leave my corporate career within the next 18 months to become a part time schedule analysis consultant, and stay at home dad/stock trader.
_____________
There you have it. I have set the stage, the extraordinary dream. This blog will be my story of how this 'extraordinary dream' pans out. I hope to share with you what I learn along the way develop some friends as well.
Lets see how it goes - Dave
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