The Straddle, I mean strangle trade...

Trade Update 7/27/06

As I have recently been saying, I have been waiting for the market to tell me which way it is going to go. For the last couple of months, the DOW has been trading between 11700 and 10650. I am waiting the market to either break through or bounce down from resistance on high volume. Interestingly enough, the market looks to test resistance on or about the next FED announcement date.

7/27/06 $INDU 60d60m Chart



Below is a screen sot of my current trade as of market close on 7/26/06



I only have one trade now. You guessed it, that (so called) straddle trade that I entered some time ago… I have actually been wrong all this time. It is not a straddle trade but a strangle trade. Investopedia provides a fine description of the strange trade. Anyway, as I have come to learn from this trade experience that this type of trade is only profitable when a large price movement is occurs. I have been in this QCOM trade since around 7/12/06 and there has not been one of those large price movement thing-a-me-jigs… This why I am yet to make and profit! I still have a few weeks until expiration, so I will see how it goes.

I lost RIG yesterday to my stop for a 50% profit.

Good Luck - David

Trade Update 7/26/06 BMO

Almost all stocks on my watch list appear oversold or neutral. I am waiting on the market to give me conformation of what direction it is going at the moment. Long Term – still bullish, mid term - cautiously bullish, short term… not to sure!

Below is a screen sot of my current trades as of market close on 7/25/06.



Below is a screen sot of my current trades as of market close on 7/25/06.

.EOGTN – Lost to stop on 7/21/06 for a profit of 51.07 after commissions. I could be still in the trade if the stop was above my resistance line.
.AAOHH & AAOTU – Straddle Play, still watching the numbers! The call is all but worthless now and the put has doubled its value. I am in the red by about $10
.RIGTQ – Hold @ 75.79 – I am still in the trade. My indicators are showing that the stock is moving from oversold to neutral ground.

Good Luck - David

A Pause in my Posts - Time is on my side

Sorry about the lack of posts since last Friday. Many things to do, so little time. I have managed to look at my positions each day and look at some potential new trades, but have not had the chance to post on the blog.

Update: I have lost all but three positions now and the market is in this frustrating state. All my indicators are pointing to an oversold state, but I don't have a bull feeling about the market. I am getting mixed messages and are not too sure what to do. As some one posted on a blog I read today, 'I want to go short, but all I see are longs. It is neither the right time to go short or long at the moment.' For me, a bullish sign is the Dow breaking 11248. A bearish sign will be the Dow falling below 10600ish.

I really really really want to get in some trades. I need to maintain my discipline and wait for confirmation. Time is on my side.

Cheers - David

Its Friday, I had to drag myself out of Bed Today

I slept in because I knew my trade review would be quick easy for me today. I am holding all my positions today with not stop changes. I have started looking at my watchlist for some trades to enter next week. I hope to post something about them on the week end.
_________________

Below is a screen sot of my current trades as of market close on 7/20/06.


As usual, below are the adjustments that I made to my current trades before market open. I have adjusted them to lock in profits and/or minimize possible losses.

.DVNTL – Hold at 61.80.
.EOGTN – I stopped out of EOG yesterday for a 7% profit. Some of my stops are too tight. I still should be in this trade. EOG & DVN are trading very similarly.
.AAOHH & AAOTU – Straddle Play, still watching the numbers!
.RIGTQ – Hold @ 75.79 – My 2nd profit target for RIG is 70.04.

For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you develop your own trading systems, strategies and rules, conduct your analysis, come to your own conclusions and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near qualified to make such recommendations.

Good Luck - David

Easy One Today!

Just a few trades now. I am looking forward to doing my backwards analysis of my trades. This should give me some good lessons learned and help refine my future trading strategies.

Below is a screen sot of my current trades as of market close on 7/19/06.


As usual, below are the adjustments that I made to my current trades before market open. I have adjusted them to lock in profits and/or minimize possible losses. The anticipated bounce on the major indices did not occur today, but the expectation is still there. I expect to be stopped out of many of these trades in the coming days.

.DVNTL – Hold at 61.80
.EOGTN – Hold at 68.56
.AAOHH & AAOTU – Straddle Play, still watching the numbers! Very interesting, it appears that the option value in both directions is decreasing. Looking at the chart, the stock has been in this 2pt+/- trading range for the last week or so.
.RIGTQ – Changed to 75.79. I have made my profit. From looking at the chart, the stock appears to have entered a – My profit target for RIG was 76.68. I passed my first profit target!

For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you develop your own trading systems, strategies and rules, conduct your analysis, come to your own conclusions and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near qualified to make such recommendations.

Good Luck - David

B B B BB BB BBB BBBB BBBBBBBBBBBBBOUNCE!

There was that bounce that we were expecting. For a great commentary on the events of the day I will give you the usual recommendation to read Trader Tim’s Blog posting today. Make sure you read the comments. Some of these guys have some amazing insight into the market.

As expected, I was stopped out of the majority of my current trades today for a modest profit. They could have been better. I think I need to put some more thought to the application of my stop strategy when the market is moving like this. My intuition told me to get out the other day when the DOW bounced off 10701. Today's bounce was imminent.

The put trades I stopped out of today include:

.BNITO – Stopped out today for a 29% gain in 12 calendar days. Sold @ 73.57, I did not reach my profit target of 72.25.
.DOTQ – Stopped out today for a 93% gain in 12 calendar days. Sold @ 73.30, my profit target was 79.50. Great Trade!
.LSSTL – Stopped out today for a 22% gain in 12 calendar days. Sold @ 51.80, I did not reach my profit target of 50.07.
.MLMTR – Stopped out today for a 111% gain in 12 calendar days. Sold @ 79.43, my profit target was 77.15.
.NYXUK – Stopped out today for a 16% gain in 12 calendar days..
.XBTTF – Stopped out for a .05% gain. No loss on commissions! Sold at 56.73, my profit target was 50.56. I am disappointed with this trade. It did not budge on market down days. I could have sold it for a 22% gain when the market went to 10701, but I stayed in waiting for the stop to be triggered.
.TRNTH – Stopped out today for a 63% gain in 12 calendar days. Sold @ 31.05, my profit target for TRN was 30.39.

Based on these trades and the trades exited in the last few days, I have had a gain of about 42% in 12 days. It could have been more, it could have been less. I was lucky. Note that if I had of exited these trades the day the DOW bounced off 10701, my gain would have been around 67% in about 9-10 days. Its something to ponder, however at the end of the day, I am very happy with the outcome. It exceeded my expectations!

I think I have 3 open trades now. I need to start looking for some more to enter. I feel that I need to stay in a holding pattern for the next few days and let the market work itself out and give nme some direction. The time to get back in with some new trades will be soon enough.

For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you develop your own trading systems, strategies and rules, conduct your analysis, come to your own conclusions and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near qualified to make such recommendations.

Good Luck and Good Night - David

YHOOOOOO Down the Tube!

Its abit late... I had to get to work before I could upload the blog post I had written this morning. Anyhow here is what I had written BMO thismorning!
_________________

Guess I was wrong about Yahoo! If I had of stayed in, I would be up 250% on the trade. Oh well, not to worry. I had my strategy mapped out and I stuck to it. I would be patting myself on the back if the earnings had been the other way.

One thing I have learned is that Discipline is the Key to being a good trader. It will protect you from your self!
_________________

Below is a screen sot of my current trades as of market close on 7/18/06.

As usual, below are the adjustments that I made to my current trades before market open. I have adjusted them to lock in profits and/or minimize possible losses. The anticipated bounce on the major indices did not occur today, but the expectation is still there. I expect to be stopped out of many of these trades in the coming days.

.BNITO – Changed to 73.36 – Probable time to get out of this one.
.DVNTL – Hold at 61.80 -
.DOTQ – Changed to 73.24 – Closed just above 72 @ 72.20
.EOGTN – Changed to 68.56
.QMHTK – Stopped out today for a 12% gain in 11 calendar days. I did not reach my profit target of 46.27.
.LSSTL – Changed to 51.78 – My 1st profit target is 50.07.
.MLMTR – Changed to 76.65 – The stock passed it profit target, it is looking to bounce. Its time to get out with a good profit
.NYXUK – Hold @ 62.55 – Still not stopped out!
.AAOHH & AAOTU – Straddle Play, still watching the numbers!
.XBTTF – Changed to 56.70 – It appears to be making a move now.
.RIGTQ – Changed to 76.14 – My profit target for RIG was 76.68. I passed my first profit target!
.TRNTH – Hold @ 34.77 – My profit target for TRN is 30.39.
.UNPTR –Stopped out yesterday for a 43% gain. I did not reach my profit target of 84.77.
.YHQVG – Exited trade yesterday before close for a 12% gain. Guess I was wrong about its earnings call. If I had of stayed in, I would be 200% up today! Its OK, I planned my trade, and executed it as planned. If it had of jumped, I would have been thankfull.

For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you develop your own trading systems, strategies and rules, conduct your analysis, come to your own conclusions and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near qualified to make such recommendations.

Good Luck - David

PPI Numbers - Lets see what they do.

Below is YHOO Finance Market update for PPI Numbers.

"08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.5. Futures trade pulls back following PPI data, still indicating a modestly lower open for the indices. Total PPI rose a larger than expected 0.5% (consensus 0.3%) in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) rose 0.2%, matching economists' forecasts. Bonds, which were down ahead of the data, have weakened, as the 10-yr note is now down 7 ticks to yield 5.09 %. "

Lets see how they affect my current trades.

CPI, PPI, Earnings & an Anticipated Market Bounce!

The anticipated market bounce did not occur today. I think that the market is waiting for tomorrow’s CPI/PPI announcement. From what I understand, if the numbers are good, there will be a number of sharp gap ups in the market at open. If that occurs, it will induce what I hope to be a short lived rally where the opportunity to enter some new put trades may arise. I have never been through a CPI/PPI announcement, so I don’t know what to expect. If the market gaps up tomorrow, I am sure that it will take a good share of the 65% paper gain that I had been nurturing the last two weeks. We will see.

A guy by the name of Mark posted the following comment on Trader Tim’s blog today. I agree with his thoughts:

“DOW temp bottom, or pause on the way?That is the biggest question for today.

For those that haven't shopped for their August+ puts, it is probably a good time to look. Especially if the market sprints North like most peoples' guts are telling them.

Hard to say how long this pause in the DOW will last, like the last couple lasting 7-9 days each. And which way will it break?It should get over 10900 to complete the second sholder. But if there is enough catalist, it doesn't even need to do that and just drop to 10400-10500.

If it does drop to that level, it will likely spring back up to 10700 right after.I think Tony said it sometime recently, it may be Wed or Thurs before we see movement again. If it heads North, it makes for a really good technical bottom for the h&s to hit 10900-11000.”
_________________
Below is a screen sot of my current trades as of market close on 7/17/06.

As usual, below are the adjustments that I made to my current trades before market open. I have adjusted them to lock in profits and/or minimize possible losses. The anticipated bounce on the major indices did not occur today, but the expectation is still there. I expect to be stopped out of many of these trades in the coming days.

.QAATY – Stopped out today for a 32% gain in 10 calendar days.
.BNITO – Hold @ 73.36 - The stock closed right at its support line surpassing my profit target of 72.25. My indicators appear to show an oversold condition.
.DVNTL – Hold at 61.80
.DOTQ – Change to 76.30 - It looks like it may find support at 72 and bounce or continue on its way down.
.EOGTN – Hold @ 69.63 – I am glad that I was patient. It appears to be making its move now.
.ETTX – Stopped out today for a 93% gain in 10 calendar days. I did not reach my profit target of 21.00.
.QMHTK – Hold @ 51.07 – My profit target for HWAY is 46.27
.LSSTL – Changed to 52.96 – My 1st profit target is 50.07.
.MLMTR – Changed to 79.58 – It My profit target is 77.15. It needs to break 76.90.
.NYXUK – Changed to 62.55 – I may get stopped out on this trade tomorrow.
.AAOHH & AAOTU – Straddle Play, still watching the numbers!
.XBTTF – Changed to 57.51 – It appears to be making a move now.
.RIGTQ – Changed to 77.55 – My profit target for RIG is 76.68
.TRNTH – Hold @ 35.00 – My profit target for TRN is 30.39
.UNPTR – Changed to 86.48 –My profit target for UNP is 84.77.
.YHQVG – Hold @ 32.48. Forgot to exit the trade, looks I am going to be in it for the earnings call. My guess is that it will be good & the stock will gap-up to above 33.23. If not, it will head down to 30.23.

For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you develop your own trading systems, strategies and rules, conduct your analysis, come to your own conclusions and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near qualified to make such recommendations.

Good Luck - David

Stop Strategy

Before market open 7/17/06 – Happy Monday!

Now that it seems that I am starting to make profitable trades, I have been focusing of on developing my stop loss skills to lock in profits and minimize possible losses. Trader Tim recently shared his stop strategy in his blog posting titled Defensive-Trading. There appears to be similarities, however he likes to adjust his stops based on a review of intraday price movements while the market is in play. I would like to be able to do that, but I must conduct my analysis after I get home from work each day, so the strategy I employ is a little more mechanical.

On entry to a particular trade, I establish the stop loss at a previous high or determined resistance level. I want to give the stock plenty of room to make its move. The last thing I want is to be stopped out of a trade prematurely because my initial stop was too tight. For option trades, I find that I allow 20-50% of the premium paid for the initial stop. Once it starts making its move, I find that I like to use the High/Low/Open/Close from previous days, or new resistance levels as the stop.

Below is a screen sot of my current trades as of market close on 7/14/06.


As usual, below are the adjustments that I made to my current trades this morning before market open. I have adjusted them to lock in profits and/or minimize possible losses. Given the anticipation of a bounce on the major indices, I expect to be stopped out of many of these trades in the coming days.

.QAATY – Changed to 51.41
.BNITO – Changed to 73.36
.DVNTL – Hold at 61.80 – I should probably exist this trade. It has not been performing as expected; however, it is yet to break resistance level. It may just need to give it more time.
.DOTQ – Change to 78.00 - My profit target for DO was 78.50 – My stop is now below my PT - Good Trade!
.EOGTN – Hold @ 71.30 – I should probably exist this trade. It has not been performing as expected; however, it is yet to break resistance level.
.ETTX – Changed to 20.61 – I think we will see a bounce in the other direction today and I will get bumped out.
.QMHTK – Changed to 51.07 – Looks to be still on the way down. My profit target for HWAY is 46.27.
.LSSTL – Changed to 53.89 – I think we will see a bounce in the other direction today and I will get bumped out.
.MLMTR – Changed to 80.32 – It is still dropping like a rock. My profit target is 77.15.
.NXYUK – Out @ 3.90 Gain after commissions 90.07
.NYXUK – Changed to 62.55 – It appears to be mow making a downward move.
.AAOHH & AAOTU – Straddle Play, still watching the numbers!
.XBTTF – Hold @ 57.90 - S&P Energy Fund just will not budge. With all the Middle East, Korea and oil issues applying pressure to the market I expect to be stopped out with very little, if any profit. We will see.
.RIGTQ – Changed to 79.44 – Might see a bounce today, not sure.
.TRNTH – Changed to 35.00 – My profit target for TRN is 30.39.
.UNPTR – Changed to 87.45 – I am not sure which direction this will go. I will use Fridays open as my stop. My profit target for UNP is 84.77.
.YHQVG – Changed to 32.48. Earnings this week! There will be a lot of volatility I think.

For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you develop your own trading systems, strategies and rules, conduct your analysis, come to your own conclusions and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near qualified to make such recommendations.

Good Luck - David

P.S. Republished original 9.21am post with addition of image and link to TN blog posting.

Time to Tighten Some Stops & take Some Money Off The Table

I think today was a definitive move to the downside. Based on the outcome of today’s trading session, I am up 34% on my trades. While I expect tomorrow will be another down day, I think that its time to consider taking some of the profits off the table so it can be divvied up between my wife and the tax man :-)

Below is a screenshot of my current trades.



I don’t intend on closing out any of these positions, partially when my expectation for tomorrow is another down day. However, I will be using much more aggressive stops for many of the trades. Sure I could squeeze some additional points, but as the market has shown me a few times this week, things can change very quickly.

As usual, below are the adjustments that I made to my current trades. I have adjusted them to lock in profits and/or minimize possible losses.

.QAATY – Changed to 55.24
.BNITO – Changed to 73.65 – My profit target for BNI was 72.25. It surpassed that level today. I am going to use today’s open as my stop.
.DVNTL – Changed to 61.80. This stock has held its ground pretty well in light of recent days. I have not seen the move that I was anticipating. Given the oil hysteria and what is going on in the Middle East, I am not totally surprised.
.DOTQ – Change to 78.50 - My profit target for DO was 78.50. That is where I will set my stop loss.
.EOGTN – Change to 71.30 – Like BNI, it is another Energy/Oil & Gas stock that has held its ground.
.ETTX – Changed to 20.98 – I have doubled my money on this trade so far. My profit target for ET is 20.98. I expect this stock to drop to its long term trend line.
.QMHTK – Changed to 52.80. My profit target for HWAY is 46.27. It has a long way to go.
.LSSTL – Changed to 54.50
.MLMTR – Changed to 82.60 – I have doubled my money on this trade so far. It is still dropping like a rock. My profit target is 77.15.
.NXYUK – Changed to 55.63 – I didn’t stop out today. I am surprised.
.NYXUK – Changed to 66.13 – For a mistake, things are going OK.
.AAOHH & AAOTU – Straddle Play. Stock broke through its long tern trend line today. I should probably exit the call, but I want to see how the numbers work.
.RIGTQ – Changed to 80.33 – Nice drop today, broke through its 30DMA.
.TRNTH – Changed to 36.15 – Turning out to be a great trade. My profit target for TRN is 30.39.
.UNPTR – Changed to 88.14 – It go a little stuck there, but appears to be making its move now. My profit target for UNP is 84.77.
.XBTTF – Hold @ 60.15 - S&P Energy Fund just will not budge.
.THQVG – Changed to 33.16. It appeared stuck at the upper limit of its trading range for a bit, but is starting to weaken now. I will exit in the coming days. I don’t think I will ride this one through earnings.

The best thing about posting this blog tonight is that I don’t have to get up at 5am tomorrow to do it! I think that I am going to sleep in an extra hour… Yeaaa!

For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you conduct your analysis, come to your own conclusions and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near qualified to make such recommendations.

Good Luck - David

Quick Market Observation

One particular piece of learning that has been reinforced over the last week is how much individual stocks are tied to the performance of the broader market indexes. I owe my gains to being able to predict the short term market trends, and picking stocks that meet my trading criteria that track close to the broader market. Granted, if the market swung in the other direction yesterday or today, I probably would have stopped out of the majority of my trades, but it didn’t. The market has been my friend - Thank-you.

Remember – Respect the market – It is always right. We are just pawns; it does not care about us. It can and will take our money any time it wants.

Cheers - David

Up... Down... Turn Around. Just Make A Decision!

Talk about a fickle market. I really do not know what to expect from it. It seems to be in this indecisive limbo where it refuses to make a decisive move in either direction. I hope that the $INDU breaking its short term trend line yesterday is a beginning. Some of the comments that I have read state that yesterday’s sell-off was unconvincing due to the lack of volume. They said that it needed to be at least 1.8b. I am not sure what to think myself. I am very thank-full that I am able tap into their insight.

Below is a screenshot of my current trades as of Market Close on 7/12/06.



It seems that not freaking out at the upswing a couple of days back and not giving into my fear was a good decision. By the end of yesterdays trading session, my gain had increased from 3% to 14% for the week and I did not lose any trades to my stops. This is very encouraging. I owe some thanks for this to Trader Tim and his June 13, 2006 blog post titled Don’t Make this Mistake, and the couple of negatives experiences of my own.

Below are the adjustments that I made to my current trades before market open today. I have adjusted them down to lock in profits and/or minimize possible losses.

.QAATY – Changed to 56.49
.BNITO – Hold @ 78.71
.DVNTL – Hold @ 63.35
.DOTQ – Hold @ 81.50
.EOGTN – Hold @ 72.45
.ETTX – Changed to 22.03
.QMHTK – Hold @ 53.94
.LSSTL – Hold @ 58.33
.MLMTR – Changed to 86.31
.NXYUK – Hold 56.29 – May be to aggressive, we will see.
.NYXUK Hold @ 69.62
.AAOHH & AAOTU – No Stop – Playing with straddle.
.RIGTQ – Hold @ 81.57
.TRNTH – Changed to 38.30
.UNPTR – Changed to 90.79
.XBTTF – Hold @ 60.15
.THQVG – Hold @34.09

For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you conduct your analysis, come to your own conclusions and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no where near qualified to make such recommendations.

Good Luck - David

Trade Update - Pre-market 7/12/06

Yesterday was a wild day. At 1pm, I was up 16% on my trades, not bad! The market had broken through my support lines and my expectation was it would stay below it for the remainder of the day. Then around 1.38pm, the market entered into a crazy upswing to close in the positive. By the end of the trading session, my 16% gain finished up as only a 3% gain…

Below is a screenshot of my current trades.












I have made the mistake twice where I have exited a trade out of fear of what I think the market will do - Only to loose money. This time around I am going to adjust stops. After conducting an analysis, I have found that I am not going to do anything for about half my current trades. For the others, I have adjusted them down to lock in profits and/or minimize possible losses if we see an upswing like yesterday. Below are the adjustments that I have made.

.QAATY – Hold @ 57.60
.BATQ – Stopped out at 4.50 – What was a 500+ gain, ended up only being 30.07. Very disappointing. I am considering entering a trade in the other direction. I need to do my analysis.
.BNITO – Changed to 78.71
.DVNTL – Hold @ 63.35
.DOTQ – Changed to 81.50
.EOGTN – Hold @ 72.45
.ETTX – Changed to 22.45
.QMHTK – Hold @ 53.94
.LSSTL – Hold @ 58.33
.MLMTR – Changed to 88.73
.NXYUK – Hold 57.99
.NYXUK Hold @ 69.62
.AAOHH & AAOTU – No Stop – Playing with straddle.
.RIGTQ – Hold @ 81.57
.TRNTH – Changed to 39.01
.UNPTR – Changed to 92.50
.XBTTF – Hold @ 60.15
.THQVG – Hold @34.09

For anyone reading this, just remember that this is my personal trading journal. I do not recommend that you enter any of these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you conduct your analysis and get professional advice from qualified professionals persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near qualified to make such recommendations.

Good Luck - David

7/10/06 Trade Updates

Below is a screenshot of my current trades.



After review of today’s (7/10/06) market action and price changes, I made the following adjustments to my contingent stop orders. I have found that I am getting better at selecting stocks, but I really have to work on keeping the money that I make. Stop Management is critical.

.QAATY – Hold @ 57.60
.BATQ – Hold @ 81.60
.BINTO – Hold @ 80.15
.DVNTL – Hold @ 65.25
.DOTQ – Changed to 82.00
.EOGTN – Changed to 72.45
.ETTX – Changed to 22.81
.QMHTK – Changed to 53.94
.LSSTL – Hold @ 58.33
.MLMTR – Changed to 89.40
.NXYUK – Changed to 57.99
.NYXUK Hold @ 69.62
.AAOHH & AAOTU – No Stop
.RIGTQ – Changed to 81.57
.TRNTH – Changed to 40.40
.UNPTR – Changed to 93.01
.XBTTF – Hold @ 60.15
.THQVG – Hold @34.09

Just remember that I do not recommend that you enter these trades or do anything that I choose to do. Theses trades and stops are based on my own analysis and conclusions. I recommend that you conduct your analysis and get professional advice from qualified persons before making any investment decisions. I am no way near quallified to make such recommendations.

Lets see how I go today.

Good Luck - David

Information Overload - Take #2

A couple of blog posts back, I was pleased to write about the "Stock Evaluation Sheet" and "trade Evaluation Sheet". They work great, but I find that there is still some double handling of information because I have to transfer data from one sheet to another once I have entered into a trade. I am in the process of consolidating the sheet into one document, no more than sheet. That should make things more efficient.

As for the stocks, I will be monitoring my positions closely this week. Trader Tim had a few interesting things to say on the weekend. I was going to enter a few more trades (BHI, CX, NOV to name a few), but decided that I have enough on the books already.

Thanks - David

New Trades

Below is a list of my current paper trades. I entered these trades today at market open (other than the BA and QCOM contracts). I have contingent stops based on resistence for each. Some have provided better than expected gains already. The market was my friend today.



I must admit that I have already deviated from my trading rules for some of the above trades (1st step is realization and acknowledgment! – You cannot lie to yourself). If you look at the charts, you will notice that many of these stocks were way above the 30DMA. The common denominator for many of these is that they are indicating topping patters and severely overbought conditions. Stocks such as YHOO and LSS appear to be a trading pattern. I intend on riding them down to the support level.

I consider a number to be high risk, such as MLM and DVN, because they appear to be trading above the 30DMA and show signs of a possible reversal. I will need to monitor these more closely and tighten stops where appropriate.

Another thing to add to the mix is earnings season! Many of the stock on the list have their announcement in the next two weeks. More than likely, I will exit these trades prior to the announcement.

We will see how they go!

Thanks - David
_______________________

Lessons Learned - Trading Errors Kill Profits

Mixed up MSTR for another stock and exited prematurely – Lost 309 and missed out on the 10+point move and 2k profits – DAMMMMMMMMMMMMMM That trade alone would have recovered all my losses suffered last week trading the FED announcement!

Entered NYX instead of NXY – Don’t mix up the symbols. This time I was lucky, NYX is in a down trend, so I decided to keep!

Information Overload - Keep It Simple Stupid!

I had become really over burdened with too much disorganized information, so I developed a paper system to make it a little easier. Over the last few days, I spent some time creating a “Stock Evaluation Sheet” to assess stocks for trade entry and pick option contracts, and a “Trade Evaluation Sheet” to monitor stops/price targets and assess the trade both during and after exit.

I am now able to quickly conclude if I should wait or enter a particular trade, establish price targets and stops, decide what contracts to buy, monitor trades and do my post trade evaluation. I can then input selective data into my Xls spread sheets. I had originally been using a work book and an over complicated xls spreadsheet to do this, but find it a lot easier to scribble things down on a piece of paper rather than click between different screens on the computer.

Using these sheets, I have found that I can review a stock for entry in about 5-7 minutes, and review a current trade in about 3 minutes. On exit, it takes about 5 minutes to do the exit review and lessens learned. A huge benefit is that I have all my information besides at hand, and don’t have to remember the past. I have also found that the number of trades that I can track simultaneously has increased.

Most of all, it makes the MRS. Very happy! I spend less time on the computer.

Cheers - David