Finding the time to update the posts some time can sure be difficult. Anyway, one of the promises that I made to myself was to act. I am in a number of trades at the moment, these include:
1 - Call on BHI
2 - Straddle on CWTR
3 - Put on MO - Small double top
4 - Call on OIH
5 - Call on RTI
Another promise was to make sure that I post the details for each and every trade... All I can say is that it is forthcoming.
Below are some of the stocks on my trade entry watch list:
1. ODP - Waiting on conformation on a descending triangle
2. DRI - Breakout from a mid term down trend and bounce off its long term trend line.
3. EOG - Bounce off Resistance
4. HUM - Earnings Breakout
5. NCS - Bounce off Resistance... Trend Breakout
6. ROK - Breakout from a mid term down trend
7. ARNA - Breakout from a mid term down trend
8. CNX - Down leg of what I am calling a complex Head & Shoulders / Double Top Thing-a-ma-jig.
9. CERN 0 Breakout from a broadening formation. It may be making its move from a partial decline.
10. RATE, SYY, MTH and a few others in one direction or another...
Anyway, bed time for me... the Wife, Kiddo and I are all sick at the moment.
Keep well - David... or should I say Davo!
Wednesday, February 07, 2007
Sunday, January 28, 2007
Taking Stock of 2006!
Greetings, I have finally found the time to post my trading results for 2006. Here are the Stats!
Total Trades: 12
Total Winning trades: 3
Biggest Winner: $554.06
Average Winner: $412.08
Total Loosing Trades: 9
Biggest Looser: $777.91
Average looser: $243 or (2.43% of base account value)
Winning Trade %: 24%
Average Win/Loss per trade for year: -$47
My net loss/gain for calendar year was -9.13%.
This does not take into consideration the gain for my JEC trade which I closed in the New Year. When this trade is taken into consideration, my net loss/gain was -5.64% (as of 1/8/06). My max account drawdown at any one time was 56%, and this was during the month of August.
From looking at the statistics above, 2006 was less than a stellar year for my trading account. On a more positive note, my average winning trade was greater than my average loosing trade. Besides not having enough of them, I am happy with my winning trades. 2 went as good as they could, one I exited too early on a day my account was suffering max pain and I feared loosing my gain…
Of all the loosing trades, 2 accounted for almost half the total value of losses to impact my account value. The two biggest loosing trades happened early in the year and provided me with a very valuable educational experience (which I paid for with cash from my account!). The primary reason for the significant loss on these trades included late entry and incorrect position sizing.
Even though I believed that my stop was in the right place, the combination of the late entry and incorrect position sizing amplified the effect of the loss. Regardless of what I thought (hoped and wished) would happen I should have exited these trades at my max loss threshold for any individual trade (+/- 2% of my total trading account). 3 other less significant loosing trades were due to trading mistakes on exit, and the remainder from being stopped out for a small loss when the trade moved against me.
My paper trading account was a different storey. I increased its account value by approx 60%. I think that the primary reason for this was that I acted without fear or inhibition, placing trades as I saw fit. I also made about 2x as many trades on the paper account. Where I would make 2, 3, or 4 trades from my watch list on the paper account, I might only make one of these trades on cash account. The significant gain on the winners always made up for (and then some!) the loosing trades. What this has taught me is that I was able to make more winning trades than loosing trades. I just need to get over my fear and act with the same confidence in the real market place.
2006 was an intense learning experience for me. A lot of gratitude and thanks has to go out to my wife for all her support. I am a very lucky man. The money I lost to the market has paid me back many times over with experience. Through learning from my mistakes, refining my trading system, overcoming my fears, and acting without hesitation, I will become successful. I look forward to 2007 and what she will bring.
Cheers - David
Total Trades: 12
Total Winning trades: 3
Biggest Winner: $554.06
Average Winner: $412.08
Total Loosing Trades: 9
Biggest Looser: $777.91
Average looser: $243 or (2.43% of base account value)
Winning Trade %: 24%
Average Win/Loss per trade for year: -$47
My net loss/gain for calendar year was -9.13%.
This does not take into consideration the gain for my JEC trade which I closed in the New Year. When this trade is taken into consideration, my net loss/gain was -5.64% (as of 1/8/06). My max account drawdown at any one time was 56%, and this was during the month of August.
From looking at the statistics above, 2006 was less than a stellar year for my trading account. On a more positive note, my average winning trade was greater than my average loosing trade. Besides not having enough of them, I am happy with my winning trades. 2 went as good as they could, one I exited too early on a day my account was suffering max pain and I feared loosing my gain…
Of all the loosing trades, 2 accounted for almost half the total value of losses to impact my account value. The two biggest loosing trades happened early in the year and provided me with a very valuable educational experience (which I paid for with cash from my account!). The primary reason for the significant loss on these trades included late entry and incorrect position sizing.
Even though I believed that my stop was in the right place, the combination of the late entry and incorrect position sizing amplified the effect of the loss. Regardless of what I thought (hoped and wished) would happen I should have exited these trades at my max loss threshold for any individual trade (+/- 2% of my total trading account). 3 other less significant loosing trades were due to trading mistakes on exit, and the remainder from being stopped out for a small loss when the trade moved against me.
My paper trading account was a different storey. I increased its account value by approx 60%. I think that the primary reason for this was that I acted without fear or inhibition, placing trades as I saw fit. I also made about 2x as many trades on the paper account. Where I would make 2, 3, or 4 trades from my watch list on the paper account, I might only make one of these trades on cash account. The significant gain on the winners always made up for (and then some!) the loosing trades. What this has taught me is that I was able to make more winning trades than loosing trades. I just need to get over my fear and act with the same confidence in the real market place.
2006 was an intense learning experience for me. A lot of gratitude and thanks has to go out to my wife for all her support. I am a very lucky man. The money I lost to the market has paid me back many times over with experience. Through learning from my mistakes, refining my trading system, overcoming my fears, and acting without hesitation, I will become successful. I look forward to 2007 and what she will bring.
Cheers - David
Saturday, January 27, 2007
Trading the Zone - by Mark Douglas
Greetings,
If you have read some of my past posts, you would be aware of my 'fear of trading' issues. Slowly but surely, I am trying to overcome this through discipline and action. I know that I will eventually become extremely successful as a trader. As far as I am concerned, it is not if – it is when. At present, I am in the period of pain, the school of hard knocks! To become successful, I need to get over myself!
I have started to read ‘Trading the Zone’ by Mark Douglas. I purchased this book, along with his first book, ‘The Disciplined Trader’ about 8 months ago. The Disciplined Trader was my first introduction to trade psychology. A tough read, but an eye opener all the same. Trading the Zone looks to be an easier read.
There is one section of the prefix (page xiv) that I am compelled to share with you.
“Those Traders who have confidence in there own trades, who trust themselves to do what needs to be done without hesitation, are the ones who become successful. They no longer fear the erratic behavior of the market. They learn to focus on the information that helps them to spot opportunities to make a profit, rather than focusing on the information that reinforces their fears.
While this may sound complicated, it boils down to learning to believe that: (1) you don’t need to know what’s going to happen next to make money; (2) anything can happen; and (3) every moment is unique, meaning every edge and outcome is truly a unique experience. In any case, you wait for the next edge and appear to go through the same process again and again. With this approach you will learn in a methodological, non random fashion what works and what doesn’t. And just as important, you will build a sense of self-trust so that you won’t damage yourself in an environment that has the unlimited quantities the market has.”
This is my ultimate goal as a trader – The expanding trade account and the monetary award will be the result.
Thank-you for your time today,
Cheers - David
If you have read some of my past posts, you would be aware of my 'fear of trading' issues. Slowly but surely, I am trying to overcome this through discipline and action. I know that I will eventually become extremely successful as a trader. As far as I am concerned, it is not if – it is when. At present, I am in the period of pain, the school of hard knocks! To become successful, I need to get over myself!
I have started to read ‘Trading the Zone’ by Mark Douglas. I purchased this book, along with his first book, ‘The Disciplined Trader’ about 8 months ago. The Disciplined Trader was my first introduction to trade psychology. A tough read, but an eye opener all the same. Trading the Zone looks to be an easier read.
There is one section of the prefix (page xiv) that I am compelled to share with you.
“Those Traders who have confidence in there own trades, who trust themselves to do what needs to be done without hesitation, are the ones who become successful. They no longer fear the erratic behavior of the market. They learn to focus on the information that helps them to spot opportunities to make a profit, rather than focusing on the information that reinforces their fears.
While this may sound complicated, it boils down to learning to believe that: (1) you don’t need to know what’s going to happen next to make money; (2) anything can happen; and (3) every moment is unique, meaning every edge and outcome is truly a unique experience. In any case, you wait for the next edge and appear to go through the same process again and again. With this approach you will learn in a methodological, non random fashion what works and what doesn’t. And just as important, you will build a sense of self-trust so that you won’t damage yourself in an environment that has the unlimited quantities the market has.”
This is my ultimate goal as a trader – The expanding trade account and the monetary award will be the result.
Thank-you for your time today,
Cheers - David
Trade Review - WHR
On 1/12/06 I was kicked out of my WHR trade for a loss of 150.92 (20.73%) including commissions.
I had entered this trade on 1/9/06 and as explained on my last post, I felt that I had made a mistake. The day after the post (01/11/07) the stock closed making a nice shooting star formation for the day. (A shooting star has a small real body at the lower end of its range and a long upper shadow.) Coupled with the prior day’s price action, the stock appeared to be at the mid point of an evening star reversal. To complete the formation the stock would need to close deep into the first period’s (01/10/07) body. In addition to this the STO gave me a cross over with my other indicators showing a downward direction.
Seeing this, it renewed my feeling that even though I entered early the stock was starting to turn. Close to the end of the days trading session, I proceeded to update my contingent stop order to ‘sell at market if last was higher than 86.83 (1/11/06 high), but I entered 6.83 instead… Well no need to say what happened - Instantly stopped out. BUGGERR, Another trading mistake! Looking at the following days trading action, this mistake saved me approximately 10% on my loss. Lucky this time!
Lesson Learned – Check your order before you commit! It worked out in my favor this time, but next time it could cost you a SHITE load of profit!
Look below for the chart. The red circle shows the approx place where I exited the trade. The red oval is where I was kicked out of the trade! On a side note, the stock appears to be at resistence. My guess is that it will fall to around $85.00 before continuing up again.
I had entered this trade on 1/9/06 and as explained on my last post, I felt that I had made a mistake. The day after the post (01/11/07) the stock closed making a nice shooting star formation for the day. (A shooting star has a small real body at the lower end of its range and a long upper shadow.) Coupled with the prior day’s price action, the stock appeared to be at the mid point of an evening star reversal. To complete the formation the stock would need to close deep into the first period’s (01/10/07) body. In addition to this the STO gave me a cross over with my other indicators showing a downward direction.
Seeing this, it renewed my feeling that even though I entered early the stock was starting to turn. Close to the end of the days trading session, I proceeded to update my contingent stop order to ‘sell at market if last was higher than 86.83 (1/11/06 high), but I entered 6.83 instead… Well no need to say what happened - Instantly stopped out. BUGGERR, Another trading mistake! Looking at the following days trading action, this mistake saved me approximately 10% on my loss. Lucky this time!
Lesson Learned – Check your order before you commit! It worked out in my favor this time, but next time it could cost you a SHITE load of profit!
Look below for the chart. The red circle shows the approx place where I exited the trade. The red oval is where I was kicked out of the trade! On a side note, the stock appears to be at resistence. My guess is that it will fall to around $85.00 before continuing up again.
Trade Details
Entered: 01/09/07 1 WHR MAR 90 Put @ 7.10, stock at $84.69
With Commisison (in & out) total investment: $735.90
Exit: 01/12/07 @ 5.90, stock at 85.90
Trade duration: 3 days
Loss/Gain: -$150.92 (20.73%) Incl. Commissions
Trade Rating 5/10
Best advice... let it go, learn your lessons and move on!
See you later - David
Wednesday, January 10, 2007
Happy New Year & New Trade - WHR
Happy New Year. This blog has been a bit of a ghost town for the last couple of months. I have no excuse for it other than time. With the new born and the family being here from Oz for December things have been hectic!
I made three trades since my last post. Here is how they went.
Entered COF JAN 2007 80 Put on 11/2/06 - Stopped out on 11/27/06 for a loss of $67.92. I was anoyed with this loss. I modifed my stop order (FOR SOME DUMB REASON) to a a contingent order based on bid... The next day I was promptly kicked out at open!
Entered AEOS JAN 2007 50 Put on 11/30/06 - Stopped out on 12/4/06 for a $185.92 loss
Entered JEC JAN 2007 90 Put on 11/30/06 - Exited trade on 1/8/07 for a $554.06 gain
In the comming weeks, I hope to complete an analysis of my 2006 trades (all 12 of them :)) and post them on the blog in some sort of 'Take Stock of 2006' blog post series (sorry about the plan on words). Most of it is on paper - I just need to feed it into the machine!
++++ New Trade++++
I entered WHR just prior to the last hour of trading yeaterday (1/9/07). It has been on my watchlist for some time. It appeard to be in a channel from September, started to weaken at the beginning of December. After the dramatic mid December fall, I waited for the bounce up and entered the trade on the basis that the stock was making lower highs & lower lows. It looked to be making at a new lower high at resistance and starting to turn. Volume was below average for the day. I ented the trade @ 84.69, .40c below my resistance line. The stock closed @ 84.71. I was happy with my entry.
Entered 1/9/07
Stock price $84.69
Buy to Open - 1 Contract - MAR 90 Put @ $7.10
Total Investment 710+25.90 (commissions in & out) = 735.90
Break Even $82.90
Target Stock Price - $81.00
Option Target Price +/- $10.00
Stop @ $87.15 - 5c above 12/15/06 high
Here is the chart.
I made three trades since my last post. Here is how they went.
Entered COF JAN 2007 80 Put on 11/2/06 - Stopped out on 11/27/06 for a loss of $67.92. I was anoyed with this loss. I modifed my stop order (FOR SOME DUMB REASON) to a a contingent order based on bid... The next day I was promptly kicked out at open!
Entered AEOS JAN 2007 50 Put on 11/30/06 - Stopped out on 12/4/06 for a $185.92 loss
Entered JEC JAN 2007 90 Put on 11/30/06 - Exited trade on 1/8/07 for a $554.06 gain
In the comming weeks, I hope to complete an analysis of my 2006 trades (all 12 of them :)) and post them on the blog in some sort of 'Take Stock of 2006' blog post series (sorry about the plan on words). Most of it is on paper - I just need to feed it into the machine!
++++ New Trade++++
I entered WHR just prior to the last hour of trading yeaterday (1/9/07). It has been on my watchlist for some time. It appeard to be in a channel from September, started to weaken at the beginning of December. After the dramatic mid December fall, I waited for the bounce up and entered the trade on the basis that the stock was making lower highs & lower lows. It looked to be making at a new lower high at resistance and starting to turn. Volume was below average for the day. I ented the trade @ 84.69, .40c below my resistance line. The stock closed @ 84.71. I was happy with my entry.
Entered 1/9/07
Stock price $84.69
Buy to Open - 1 Contract - MAR 90 Put @ $7.10
Total Investment 710+25.90 (commissions in & out) = 735.90
Break Even $82.90
Target Stock Price - $81.00
Option Target Price +/- $10.00
Stop @ $87.15 - 5c above 12/15/06 high
Here is the chart.
Today being the next day, I believe that I may have made a mistake entering this trade. The reason is that I relied soley on my trend lines to tell me when to enter, but did not look too closely at some of the indicators for conformation. Looking at them now I am a little uncertain. They do not apprear to confirm the expected move down. I prefer to see them all pointing down with cross overs on the MACD & STO. I clearly do not have that here. Today's price action is also worrisome. The stock busted through resistance. I will be watching this trade closely tomorrow.
We will see how it goes - David
Thursday, November 16, 2006
FMOC Interest Rate Announcement day… I think I am mistaken
Quick Post - I don’t know how I came to believe that FMOC interest rate announcement was today, but it is not. Come to think about it, I sometimes don’t know what planet I’m on. My mistake may have caused me to miss my entry window on some of my trades… I will know tonight.
Lesson Learned – Get Your Facts Right!
Cheers - David
Lesson Learned – Get Your Facts Right!
Cheers - David
Watch List
There are a number of stocks that I have on my watch list that are giving me buy signals (both bullish and bearish) that I have been waiting for. The include ARE, BSC, CMI, GS, MTW, PFE. However, today is not a day for me to enter any trades since it is the FED anouncement day. I have been burned on the last two and promised myself to wait until afterwards. The problem for me is not the anoucement it's self, but my in ability to react prior to the market close. AGN, FTI, FCX, MRO are also on my 'Pending' Watchlist.
I am still in my COF trade - I am watching it closely.
Cheers - David
I am still in my COF trade - I am watching it closely.
Cheers - David
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